2024 Monterey Auctions May Hit Record Totals

With Monterey Car Week fast approaching, many enthusiasts will be watching the auctions closely to see if the market can escape its post-pandemic doldrums. There are some signs of activity in the market, and the five auction companies conducting sales at Monterey have all announced big cars. Our forecast suggests total sales on the peninsula could range from a post-pandemic average of $430 million all the way up to a record year with $488 million.

We don't usually look to one model when gauging the market overall, but Lamborghinis are hard to ignore, and we'll be watching them in Monterey. Lamborghini's seminal supercar has been hot even when things have otherwise been quiet. Miuras are up nearly 28 percent in the past year, and four of the five auction companies are offering at least one example. They range from cars with useful upgrades to living-room-find originality. On one hand, five on offer seems like it risks oversaturating the market. On the other hand, for enthusiasts who want a Miura, having a selection can be a good thing.

Zooming out a bit, the lot count is near average for the past several years with close to 1200 vehicles offered. Combing all the auctions, we predict some 78 percent of those will sell, which is slightly better than the past couple of years. The number of lots likely to sell for $1 million or more-156-is a likely record by six vehicles. However, not all auction companies publish estimates, hence the uncertainty.

In addition to the original Lamborghini supercar, there are plenty of modern supercars from the 1980s, 1990s, and 2000s. We've noted that this segment of the market continues to appreciate in value. Porsche Carrera GTs are down slightly from their peak in 2022 at $2 million for a condition #1 ("best-in-the-world") car, but values are starting to creep up again, and the condition #1 value is at $1.85 million. Four examples will be on offer in Monterey. The Carrera GT's predecessor, the 959, has seen more consistent appreciation in the past three years, with the condition #1 value up 68 percent since 2021 to $2.6 million. Three will be auctioned in Monterey.

It isn't in our supercars index, but an honorable mention goes to the 1997 Porsche 911 GT1 offered by Broad Arrow with an estimate of $8.5 million to $10.5 million. Of the five modern Ferrari supercars of the set, no 288 GTOs are available, but two F40s, one F50, two Enzos, and one LaFerrari will cross the block. In keeping with Pebble Beach's preference for prewar cars, only four of the 14 Bugattis offered will be from the modern mid-engine era, but there will be an EB110, one Veyron, and two Chirons. We expect this segment will continue to be popular at the auctions this year, as it has in the past several.

Even with the recent surge in modern supercars, though, the prewar segment is a favorite for the Monterey auctions, as it is for the Pebble Beach Concours. Despite 1930s vehicles representing less than 7 percent of the lots, their share of the total sales will likely be above average and in the 11 to 15 percent range. We also expect the very best 1930s consignments will dominate the top 10 for the week. Gooding & Co. has a recent theft recovery in the form of a 1938 Alfa Romeo 8C 2900B Lungo Spider by Touring, with an estimate of $16 million to $20 million. Broad Arrow has a 1938 Talbot-Lago T150 C Teardrop by Figoni et Falaschi at $6.5 million to $8.5 million, and Mecum has a 1936 Delahaye Type 135 Competition Court Teardrop Coupe. The other 11 Bugattis offered are prewar cars and range from a 1914 Bugatti Type 23 Tourer to a 1937 Bugatti Type 57SC Atalante, the latter of which has an estimate of $9 million to $11 million. Both are at Gooding.

The other cars set to dominate the top 10 are the Enzo Era (1947-73) Ferrraris, and specifically the 1950s sports racing and 1960s GT cars offered at the auctions this year. Such cars typically represent a quarter of the total sales in dollars in Monterey despite being only about five percent of the vehicles sold. This year we expect about 23 percent of total sales to come from this segment. If you're looking for style, there are two Ferrari 250 GT/L Lussos, with one at Broad Arrow and another at Bonhams. If you're seeking the ultimate California experience, there are three Ferrari 250 GT California Spiders-both a LWB and a SWB at RM Sotheby's and one SWB at Gooding. Estimates start at $5 million for the LWB and jumps to $15 million for the SWB at Gooding.

Those looking for a car with competition history can check out the ex-Carroll Shelby raced 1955 Ferrari 857 Sport Spider with an estimate of $6 million to $8 million at Gooding or another ex-Carroll Shelby raced 1956 Ferrari 410 Sport Spider with an estimate of at least $15 million at RM Sotheby's.

In rounding out the segments we're watching, some 11 percent of the vehicles offered are Porsches, which is about average for Monterey. However, total sales from Porsches is likely to be 14 percent due to top-dollar cars like the 911 GT1. We discuss the American cars we're watching in detail here, but there are seven original Cobras, one Ford GT40, a Tucker, four Duesenbergs, and a 1913 Mercer Raceabout. Conversely, only two JDM vehicles stand out-a 1993 Honda NSX Type-R and a 1999 Nissan Skyline GT-R V-spec-both are at Broad Arrow. If these sell better than expected, it will be in contrast to the mixed results this segment has gotten at Monterey in recent years.

Lastly, one new data source we will be using is the number of private aircraft landing at Monterey during car week. While we are not airplane experts, we have observed that the volume of private aircraft arriving in Monterey correlates with total sales at the auctions there. Our hypothesis is that more flights lead to more major collectors there to buy or sell.

We'll be posting our observations and analysis of the auction results in our live blog here, so stay tuned.