Walking a Tightrope: What Is Iran’s Current Strategy

• Med this WeekMiddle East and North Africa
  by Luigi Toninelli

The MED This Week newsletter provides informed insights on the most significant developments in the MENA region, bringing together unique opinions and reliable foresight on future scenarios. Today, we shed light on the regional escalation and its impact on Iran.

For three months following October 7th, Iran tried to avoid getting involved in regional tensions, consistently e denying its involvement in the attacks carried out by its numerous proxies across the region. However, the killing of IRGC high-ranking general Razi Mousavi in Syria, as well as the Islamic State (IS) terrorist attack in Kerman have reshuffled the cards, as Iran perceived a significant reduction in its deterrence capabilities. Last week, Tehran struck IS targets in Syria, an alleged Mossad base in Iraqi Kurdistan, and bases of the Baloch separatist group Jaish Ul-Adl in Pakistan. Islamabad retaliated by striking Baloch targets on Iranian territory, raising concerns over a potential escalation between the two historical partners. Despite initial concerns, Pakistan and Iran opted for a prompt de-escalation and agreed to reinstate their ambassadors on January 26th, a move aimed at shielding bilateral economic and political relations. Against this backdrop, President Raisi's visit to Ankara on January 24th was particularly relevant. Türkiye, which has good relations with both countries, avoided taking a stand during the ongoing escalation and safeguarded its relations with two much-needed partners.

Experts from the ISPI network discuss the regional escalation and its impact on Iran.

Iran-Pakistan tit-for-tat attacks: an averted crisis

"What could have easily become a major crisis between two interdependent neighbours, Iran and Pakistan, was quickly averted by rapid thoughtful action. The political leadership on both sides recognised the danger of an escalated conflict and agreed to talks in end-February to resolve differences. The best solution would be for both sides to expel the insurgents from their territories. Whether they will they do so remains the key question for now. Both countries have critical trade ties and dependencies. Pakistan relies on Iranian petrol and diesel to the tune of 40% of its domestic consumption. Unofficial trade also abounds and three districts of Pakistani Balochistan receive their electricity from Iran. Last year their respective foreign ministers agreed to increase bilateral trade from roughly $2 billion to $5 billion. Iran relies on illicit trade via Pakistan to circumvent US sanctions. These factors should help them find a longer-term solution."

Shuja Nawaz, Distinguished Fellow, South Asia Center, Atlantic Council

Türkiye's diplomacy: a balanced approach between Tehran and Islamabad

"Recent Iran-Pakistan tensions were not on the agenda during the meeting between Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and his Iranian counterpart Ebrahim Raisi on January 24. This does not come as a surprise: Ankara had already abstained from commenting on the escalation between Tehran and Islamabad in the last few days, to maintain a balanced attitude between its two much-needed partners. Turkish-Iranian relations, which have gone through ups and downs for decades, have been historically characterised by a mix of regional rivalry and economic cooperation. While Turkey and Iran's positions differ on several regional dossiers, from Syria to Nagorno-Karabakh, trade and energy interests continue to represent the backbone of the close but not easy ties. Unsurprisingly, Raisi's visit to Ankara showed that, against a backdrop of increasing regional volatility, the two countries continue to bet on their complex relationship."

Valeria Talbot, Head of Middle East and North Africa Centre, ISPI

As Israel strategically ratches up tensions, Iran seeks to bog it down on multiple fronts

"By capitalising on the Gaza conflict, Israel is strategically mitigating regional threats, predominantly from the Iran-led coalition. The cautious approach of its adversaries is seen by Israel as a chance to establish dominance in various areas. This strategy is manifested through targeted operations in Syria, eliminating figures like IRGC's Razi Mousavi, Hamas' Saleh Arouri, Hezbollah's Wissam al-Tawil, and attacking the IRGC Quds force's intelligence sector in Damascus. Such actions have significantly weakened Iran's deterrence capacity, stirring apprehensions that intense retaliation could escalate into a major conflict. Through these measures, Israel has unexpectedly managed to temper the Iran-led coalition's actions, securing a strategic upper hand. Nonetheless, Iran appears intent on draining Israel through a prolonged, attritional conflict in Gaza, along the Lebanese front, and the Yemeni factor that's affecting trade routes in the Red Sea. From Tehran's perspective, the more Israel is embroiled in ongoing conflicts, the greater the potential for its political and societal fabric to be destabilised, potentially precipitating a profound existential crisis within the nation."

Ali Hashem, Journalist, Al Jazeera; Founder, Jadeh Iran

Iran and the Middle East escalation: Provocations to what extent?

"Since October 7th, 2023, Hamas' terrorist incursion into Israel and the ensuing Israeli invasion of Gaza, the Islamic Republic has engaged in a limited, cautious and calculated horizontal spread of the conflict. Iran's policy serves two purposes: first, to ratchet up the crisis to a level that complicates Israeli and US calculations while avoiding provoking a direct US war against Iran. Second, to warn the US of the risk of the widening of the war, encouraging Washington to persuade Israel to stop the war in Gaza. Until now, this policy has proved effective, but mishaps, such as accidental death of US military personnel, may provoke what Iran hopes to avoid."

Ali Alfoneh, Senior Fellow, Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington

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