Why Is Verizon Doubling Down on Its Satellite NTN Commitments

By Jake Saunders | 3Q 2024 | IN-7505

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Satellite communications, or Non-Terrestrial Network (NTN) communications, as it is now often referred to, continues to build momentum. The 3rd Generation Partnership Project (3GPP) has set out its roadmap for integrating NTN into the cellular technology fold. Proprietary Mobile Satellite Services (MSS) have been around since the early 2000s, with the launch of Iridium's MSS. Globalstar also survived the lean years and then, in September 2022, managed to secure investment and long-term contracts with Apple to provide the mobile device manufacturer with wholesale NTN connectivity. Recently, terrestrial Communications Service Providers (CSPs) have taken a deeper interest in the nascent NTN market. In late August 2024, Verizon, a U.S. telco with US$134 billion in revenue and 115 million mobile subscribers announced its second NTN deal, with Skylo. The first was with AST SpaceMobile back in May 2024, which committed US$100 million of Verizon's funding. The contractual value of the Skylo deal has not been released, but must be in the tens of millions of dollars. Why has Verizon made these commitments? To answer that question, it would be useful to understand who Skylo and AST SpaceMobile is and how they operate.

AST SpaceMobile (United States) was established in 2017 with the goal of providing the first cellular broadband network in space that can be accessed directly by standard mobile phones. Its in-orbit, BlueWalker 3 prototype satellite, which is equipped with numerous phased-array antennas, is one of the largest satellites in Low Earth Orbit (LEO) and can connect directly with "unmodified" mobile devices. This means that the mobile user's handset can communicate with orbiting AST SpaceMobile LEO satellites using a cellular carrier channel that belongs to their existing terrestrial CSP. The communications link does not use dedicated satellite spectrum bands. AST SpaceMobile's business model is to partner with regional CSPs and use their terrestrial spectrum to offer NTN mobile services. The company has been successful in this regard. In addition to Verizon, AST SpaceMobile has established strategic partnerships with more than 45 CSPs, including Vodafone, Rakuten Mobile, AT&T, Bell Canada, MTN Group, Orange, Zain KSA, STC, and Telefónica, that collectively service approximately 2.8 billion cellular customers. In the case of ATT and Verizon, the service operates in the 850 Megahertz (MHz) band. The satellite operator has developed five new satellites, its new line of BlueBird satellites, which will provide nationwide non-continuous service across the United States through 5,600 targeted "cells" of coverage. The BlueBird satellite design offers a ten-fold increase in processing bandwidth and has an antenna that is a remarkable 64.4 Square Meters (m2) in size.

Skylo (United States) was also established in 2017. The Skylo network works by connecting devices via existing satellite constellations in a way that is similar to international roaming. As Skylo's technology is built on top of the latest cellular industry standards (3GPP - NTN), there is no need for proprietary satellite modems or antennas, and this makes satellite connectivity cost-effective and accessible for a wide range of applications. One connectivity solution that Skylo offers is the Skylo Hub, which is a compact, end-user terminal developed by Skylo to connect adjacent devices such as smartphones and laptops to the Skylo Network. The Hub, which includes geolocation and acceleration sensors, operates like a wireless hotspot for nearby sensors and transmits data via Skylo Connect, an always-on satellite network that provides real-time communication. In addition to the Skylo Hub, 3GPP NTN standard-compliant handsets can transmit and receive signals from Skylo-partnered satellites. Skylo partners with multiple Geostationary Earth Orbit (GEO) satellite companies, such as Viasat/Inmarsat and EchoStar, with their existing satellites across a range of spectrum bands, such as the L-band (1 - 2 GHz) and S-band (2 - 4 GHz). Besides compatibility with GEO MSS satellites, Skylo has also stated that its solution will be compatible with the latest LEO satellite constellations. Skylo currently offers a "Narrowband" service via the 3GPP's IoT-NTN protocol. This means that streaming services, such as voice, music, and video, are not supported. At present, with Narrowband (NB) Internet of Things (IoT) over NTN, only Short Messaging Service (SMS) or texting services are supported. These messages are typically 50-byte or 100-byte packets containing information like status, location, sensor data, or very brief end-user notes.

Verizon is impatient to get its NTN services up and running. Momentum in the sector is building. For example, Google recently announced that its latest suite of Pixel 9 smartphones would support SOS emergency satellite messaging, just like its Apple iPhone counterparts. Verizon's relationship with Skylo allows the U.S. CSP to jumpstart its NTN communications aspirations. It should also be noted that the "Skylo service" effectively complements the "AST SpaceMobile service." While Skylo Narrowband service can support messaging to smartphones, its service characteristics are suitable for mainstream IoT applications, such as telemetry relay and asset tracking, that are intermittent, very limited data packets in size and not real-time access. Applications supported over the Skylo IoT-NTN connection may improve over time. The 3GPP IoT-NTN protocol "can" support voice calls, but it certainly will not be High-Definition (HD) voice. 3GPP's New Radio (NR)-NTN protocol, on the other hand, does support data streaming, higher fidelity voice calls, and real-time messaging.

In early August 2024, AST SpaceMobile announced it has started developing 17 large Direct-to-Cellular (D2C)-capable satellites; its Block 2 BlueBirds will be launched in 1Q 2025. These Block 2 BlueBird satellites will have an antenna size of 223 m2, a 246% increase on the previous iteration. The satellites would support 10 GHz of processing bandwidth per satellite, which would allow for up to 120 Megabytes per Second (Mbps) download access per connection. The satellite operator has filed a request with the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) for an additional 243 satellites to boost coverage; 45 to 65 satellites are needed to provide comprehensive coverage to the United States.

It is clear that Verizon is making long-term and short-term bets. Skylo allows Verizon to get its NTN plans underway, and offers a national service not just for its smartphone user base but also for its enterprise customers that want guaranteed coverage-either as a fallback strategy if its cellular coverage is not present or the device is well beyond "any" cellular coverage. AST SpaceMobile is building up its LEO coverage and capacity to support not just narrowband applications, but also "mobile-like" broadband applications. Will AST SpaceMobile support Starlink levels of broadband capacity? That would be challenging. SpaceX's Starlink service is clearly the "elephant in the room." Starlink has more than 6,865 satellites in LEO and over 100 new D2C satellites that will compete directly with AST Space Mobile with similar network design, CSP spectrum access, and business model. Starlink's D2C service has already allied with Verizon's competitor, T-Mobile, and is set to launch services in 4Q 2024. The network's current broadband services are orientated for "full-on" broadband connectivity for homes, businesses, and vehicles-even watercraft. If Starlink crests 10,000 satellites in orbit (and potentially higher still), Starlink could even target backhaul and automotive applications. ABI Research forecasts the D2C NTN mobile market will reach US$11.6 billion in revenue by 2030 (see ABI Research's Satellite Communications: Direct-to-Cellular & NTN Deployments & Subscriptions market data (MD-SATCN-101) for more info). D2C NTN mobile will be more than just an SOS emergency messaging service. The D2C NTN mobile market also sits alongside the NTN IOT market (see Satellite Communications: IoT Deployments & Subscriptions (MD-SATCI-101) for more info) and the NTN broadband access market (see Satellite Communications: Broadband Deployments and Subscriptions (MD-SATCB-101) for more info). No wonder Verizon is making aggressive moves in this sector…it cannot afford to be left behind.