The University of Warwick
The University of Warwick
23/07/2024 | News release | Distributed by Public on 23/07/2024 11:07
What can history teach us about the current US election: Patterns, Predictions, and Lessons
What can history teach us about the current US election: Patterns, Predictions, and Lessons
"These are unprecedented times, again. There has never been an open Convention in the modern era of US politics and the ramifications of this situation will drag on for years, in large part because there is no clear blueprint for the legality of this situation. The Primaries have already happened and Joe Biden was chosen. In the USA, even dying prior to the election doesn't release a candidate from the nomination; multiple politicians have been elected posthumously. That Biden was not yet the official nominee will make the transition smoother, but angry Republicans who see Biden as a beatable opponent will surely bring suit after suit against the Democrats. If Trump loses it will be the centre of an 'election fraud' narrative.
In every American election in history where the incumbent of the governing party has chosen not to run, the opposition has won. A more similar comparison, however, might be the election of 1856 - another era of extreme division in US history. The candidacy of incumbent President Franklin Pierce was rejected by his own party at the Convention, but their new nominee, James Buchanan, won comfortably that November. The Democrats made the right decision to put pressure on Biden to withdraw, and it is already clear that the Party will unite behind Vice-President Kamala Harris - the only logical choice given the time pressures, legal issues, and need to retain Biden's campaign war chest. This move has energised the party, with donations flooding in. It is the shot in the arm the left needed in the USA and will enable the campaign to draw on the success of left wing movements in Europe. The USA now knows that right-wing surges can be defeated, and with the momentum that this excitement will provide, Harris may become the first black woman president in US history. But it will be a hard-won fight."
- Dr Rebecca Stone, Associate Professor US Political History, The University of Warwick