Thirty Years of Progress for Higher Education in California

Californians have high educational aspirations for themselves and their children. The majority of parents hope that their children will complete a bachelor's degree or higher, according to the PPIC Statewide Survey-a finding that has held over time among regions and racial/ethnic groups. Completing a college degree has long been considered one of the surest pathways to achieving social and economic mobility, with many years of research, including our own, to back this up. As we celebrate PPIC's 30th anniversary, we take stock of California's higher education systems and explore the progress made in helping Californians make their college dreams a reality.

We begin by examining college readiness. California high school students have made strong gains in completing the college preparatory courses (the "a-g" courses) required to be considered for admission to the University of California (UC) and California State University (CSU). In 1990, only about one-third of public high school graduates completed the a-g courses-by 2022 over half had done so.

College readiness rose across race and ethnic groups, but large gaps remain. The wide variation across districts is only partially explained by socioeconomic status: districts that have adopted a college-going culture, including establishing a-g completion as the standard for high school graduates, have much higher rates of college readiness. These practices have promise and suggest that adopting them could help more students reach college.

The good news is that California's undergraduate enrollment at four-year colleges and universities soared over the past 30 years, with especially large gains at the University of California. The bad news is that community college enrollment has not kept pace, and college-going rates of recent high school graduates have fallen over the past five years primarily due to declines at the community colleges.

With underlying demographic changes limiting the number of high school graduates, the state's colleges and universities will need to do a better job of attracting new students and keeping them enrolled to completion. Strategies that engage prospective degree-seeking students can be an important part of this work. Mounting data and research, including our own, has shown that dual enrollment is an important strategy to accelerate college readiness and success.

Transfer from community colleges plays a critical role in helping Californians realize their four-year degree aspirations. Compared to 30 years ago, transfer enrollment has more than doubled at the University of California, and it is nearly a third (29%) higher at the California State University. Furthermore, the share of newly enrolled transfer students from underrepresented racial/ethnic groups (i.e., Latino, Black, Native American, and Pacific Islander students) has climbed at both UC and CSU. Even so, these groups remain underrepresented compared to their share among all transfer-intending community college students, especially at UC.

Transfer rates have improved overall, but they remain far too low considering that about six in ten entering community college students state a transfer goal. Community college students continue to face similar challenges as 30 years ago. Students who intend to transfer must navigate a complex series of decisions related to varied CSU and UC requirements. However, positive developments like the creation and expansion of the Associate Degree for Transfer (ADT), developmental education reforms, and expanded dual enrollment are helping students to transfer more efficiently. Promising work also includes the development of a single general education transfer pathway (Cal-GETC),the establishment of dual admission options, and effort to adopt a common course numbering system across the California Community Colleges. Still, to address persistent gaps by race, geography, and income-and recent declines in transfer enrollment-all higher education institutions will need to collaborate to ensure that more students can attain a bachelor's degree.

College completion in California has also been improving. Although only about half of the state's freshmen graduate with a bachelor's degree within the traditional four years, six-year completion rates have risen to 62% at CSU and 86% at UC over the past decade. Among private universities, most students at for-profits never graduate, but six-year completion rates are relatively high at nonprofits (76%). And while degree attainment and transfer at California community colleges remain low, students who transfer are increasingly likely to earn a bachelor's degree within two years at CSU and UC, with timely graduation rates highest among ADT earners. Still, it is crucial to champion efforts that support college completion, especially considering the persistence of racial, income-based, and geographic disparities that affect who gets to benefit economically from a degree.

California has one of the most affordable higher education systems in the nation, thanks to its lower tuition costs and generous state financial aid programs. Due to these factors, fewer California students take out loans and their default and delinquency rates are lower compared to the national average. However, nontuition costs such as books and living expenses remain a significant concern. Recent efforts to address these challenges include expanding campus-based food pantries, increasing access to CalFresh, and promoting zero-cost textbooks. Additionally, the Universal Free Application for Student Aid (FAFSA) policy has expanded awareness and improved access to financial aid.

Despite these advances, many students and families still perceive higher education as a financial burden. Students will need more effective communication and integrated support to ensure they fully utilize available aid and support services that help meet the total costs of attendance. Schools and colleges can also work together by using dual enrollment to offer free general ed college credits. Likewise, schools and colleges can provide students with learning and career aligned opportunities to work while they are enrolled, which can help reduce overall costs and create connections to future employment.

As we look ahead, for the state to meet its goal of 70% postsecondary attainment by 2030, the pathway into and through college must be strengthened. Falling college enrollment along with state budget challenges signal an opportunity to improve access to and efficiency around California's higher education system. Our work will provide the independent data and research to help inform policy and practice so that educational systems are structured to help all Californians realize educational goals that can create a better life for themselves, their families, and their communities.

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