Total Nonfarm Payrolls for September 2024 Are Projected To Rise By 140,000

The median estimate for total nonfarm payroll employment for the month of September 2024 is 140,000.

If 140,000 is the actual increase in nonfarm payrolls, it will mark a slight decrease relative to the previous month. It will also be below the trailing 12-month average of 196,500.

August 2024 total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 142,000 compared to the median estimate of 160,000. Over the past 12 months, the total nonfarm payroll employment number has surpassed the median estimate in 7 months and fallen short of the median estimate in 5 months. The actual number has exceeded the estimate by 9.6% on average during this time. Over the past 5 years (60 months), the total nonfarm payroll employment number has surpassed the median estimate 67% of the time and fallen short of the median estimate 33% of the time. The actual number has exceeded the estimate by 3.9% on average during this time. The historical actual numbers for this analysis reflect revised numbers, not the original numbers published on the day of the report.

The median estimate of 140,000 is based on 25 estimates collected by FactSet. These estimates range from a low of 100,000 to a high of 185,000, for a spread of 85,000. This spread is slightly higher than the trailing 12-month average spread between the low and high estimate of 82,600.

The median estimate for the unemployment rate for the month of September 2024 is 4.2%.

If 4.2% is the actual unemployment rate, it will match the number from the previous month. However, it will also be above the trailing 12-month average of 3.9%.

The August 2024 unemployment rate was 4.2% compared to the median estimate of 4.2%. Over the past 12 months, the unemployment rate has surpassed the median estimate in 6 months, matched the median estimate in 2 months, and fallen short of the median estimate in 4 months. Over the past 5 years (60 months), the unemployment rate has surpassed the median estimate 28% of the time, matched the median estimate 13% of the time, and fallen short of the median estimate 58% of the time.

The median estimate of 4.2% is based on 26 estimates collected by FactSet. These estimates range from a low of 4.1% to a high of 4.3%, for a spread of 20 bps. This spread is slightly lower than the trailing 12-month average spread between the low and high estimate of 21 bps.

Tomorrow (October 4) the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release the total nonfarm payroll employment number and the unemployment rate for September.

*Actuals reflect revised numbers

This blog post is for informational purposes only. The information contained in this blog post is not legal, tax, or investment advice. FactSet does not endorse or recommend any investments and assumes no liability for any consequence relating directly or indirectly to any action or inaction taken based on the information contained in this article.

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