Egypt and Türkiye: The crowning of a new friendship

• MEDMed this WeekMiddle East and North Africa
  by Youssef Siher

The MED This Week newsletter provides informed insights on the most significant developments in the MENA region, bringing together unique opinions and reliable foresight on future scenarios. Today, we shed light on the first meeting in more than a decade between the Egyptian and Turkish Presidents.

Following a decade-long diplomatic crisis triggered by the incarceration of former Egyptian President Mohamed Morsi, who was close to Turkish President Erdoğan and his political party, after Abdel Fattah al-Sisi came to power in 2013, bilateral talks held on February 14 in Cairo appear to mark the re-establishment of relations between the two Eastern Mediterranean countries. The increasingly challenging economic and political environment within the region has prompted Ankara and Cairo to draw closer, recognizing that cooperation, rather than conflict, may better serve their respective national interests. Erdoğan's visit to Egypt was influenced by the historical context in which it took place: the Gaza war and the subsequent military escalation in the Middle East. In light of this ongoing conflict, both leaders have criticized Israel's potential ground offensive in Rafah and issued calls for an immediate ceasefire. At the bilateral level, Egypt and Turkey are making efforts to enhance their collaboration across various fields, including security, energy, and commerce. The normalization has unlocked fresh prospects for economic partnerships and investments, with the aim of increasing bilateral trade from USD 10 billion to USD 15 billion within the next five years. Furthermore, re-establishing ties with Turkey can benefit Egypt by bolstering its economy and enhancing its military capabilities through collaboration on advanced defense technology. However, some unresolved issues remain on the table, including the situation in Libya. The North African country remains a contentious issue as it stands as one of Egypt's top national security priorities, while simultaneously holding strategic significance for Türkiye in its ongoing maritime disputes with Greece and Cyprus.

Experts from the ISPI network discuss the impact and prospects of Turkish-Egyptian cooperation in the light of Erdoğan's visit to Egypt.

Türkiye and Egypt move from thaw to full normalisation, but challenges remain

The thaw in relations began in 2021. Since then, Türkiye has taken greater steps than the Egyptian side to normalise relations, by making concessions such as silencing the exiled Egyptian opposition in Türkiye. Full normalisation came gradually after President al-Sisi and President Erdoğan met at the World Cup in Doha in November 2022, at the initiative of Qatari Emir Tamim. The meeting in Cairo is important because the Israeli-Hamas conflict, as well as the mounting economic challenges in the region, are pushing these two key players to strengthen their cooperation in the fields of security, economy and energy. However, one issue remains contentious: Libya. While Türkiye's long-term interests in the North African country are closely linked to its eastern Mediterranean policy, especially with regard to its maritime disputes with Greece and Cyprus, Libya is a primary national security issue for Egypt.

Hürcan Aslı Aksoy, Head, Centre for Applied Turkey Studies, SWP

A symbiotic strengthening of economic relations between Ankara and Cairo

"Mutual economic benefits have been one of the key drivers of the recent normalization between Egypt and Türkiye. Despite frictions in relations between the two countries between 2013-2020, economic ties continued to grow, albeit conservatively. However, the recent normalisation has opened more opportunities to increase economic ties in trade and investment. Egypt is already Türkiye's most important economic partner in Africa. The two sides expect bilateral trade to increase from $10 billion to $15 billion over the next five years. Since the beginning of normalisation, Türkiye's investments in Egypt have increased to $3 billion. While Egypt needs more FDI, Turkish companies want to escape higher production costs in Türkiye. Faced with their own economic crises, both countries hope to benefit from growing economic ties."

Meli̇ha Benli Altunişik, Professor, Middle East Technical University

Realpolitik: The driver of Erdoğan's foreign policy

"President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's visit to Cairo marked the culmination of a complex reconciliation process with Egypt initiated in 2021, in the wake of Türkiye's diplomatic normalisation with its Middle Eastern neighbours. While the conflict in Gaza was at the top of the agenda in the meeting with his homologue al-Sisi, it remains unclear how Türkiye could concretely contribute to the ongoing diplomatic efforts, led by Egypt along with Qatar and the United States. However, beyond the Gaza war and its regional repercussions, tangible results were achieved at the bilateral level, including an agreement to enhance the strategic cooperation council mechanism between the two countries. After years of diplomatic hostility, shifting geopolitical dynamics and pressing economic imperatives pushed the Turkish leader to set aside ideological divergences and adopt a more pragmatic stance, levering on economy, trade and energy as major drivers of Ankara's foreign policy."

Valeria Talbot, Head, MENA Centre, ISPI

The Egyptian economy will greatly benefit from more cooperation with Türkiye

"The rapprochement between Egypt and Türkiye could have several implications for both countries. It appears that leaders from both sides have recognised that cooperation, rather than conflict, may best serve their respective national interests, spanning economic, strategic, and energy domains. More specifically, Egypt's benefits from resuming relations with Türkiye are threefold. First, Cairo can enhance its struggling economy, which faces several challenges. Attracting Turkish businesses to invest in Egypt's market could in fact help ease the ongoing economic crisis. Second, it would benefit from developing its military and defence capabilities by collaborating with Ankara, which has advanced defence weaponry and technology, particularly in drones. Finally, collaborating with Türkiye in the reconstruction efforts in Libya and Gaza would benefit the economy and open opportunities for the Egyptian labour force. Furthermore, collaboration in the energy sector, including joint exploration and development of natural gas resources in the Eastern Mediterranean, could be mutually beneficial".

Khalil al-Anani, Visiting Scholar, Georgetown University

Erdoğan and al-Sisi: A single voice against the war in Gaza

"Erdoğan's visit to Egypt comes at a critical time for the Middle East region. Given the Western support for Israel, foreseeing an immediate impact from their meeting on the Gaza war is challenging. This is not to say that their hands are tied, in fact if they choose to act bilaterally, their actions could significantly impact the whole regional dynamics and the Israeli war on Gaza. However, they might choose to focus on political signalling for now, particularly on issues related to the humanitarian situation, the potential military operation in Rafah, the displacement plans, and the ceasefire and peace efforts to resolve the conflict. The most immediate impact could be on public opinion and perception. Their meeting could shape public opinion in Türkiye, Egypt, and beyond. The meeting might lead to a joint call for preventing an operation in Rafah on the Egypt border, opposing Israeli plans to displace the Palestinians from their lands, accelerate efforts to achieve a ceasefire, and resolve the conflict. Discussions could also result in agreements on providing humanitarian aid, regardless of those hindering the flow of aid."

Ali Bakir, Non-resident Senior fellow, Atlantic Council

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