Youth vote report to CPUSA National Committee

In the 2024 presidential election, youth voter turnout (ages 18-29) dropped significantly to 42%, a steep decline from over 50% in 2020, according to CIRCLE's report on The Youth Vote in 2024. This year's turnout was closer to the levels of the 2016 election. The decrease underscores a missed opportunity to energize young voters, who had previously played a decisive role in defeating Donald Trump's far-right MAGA agenda.

A central factor in this decline was Kamala Harris's choice to run a moderate, cautious campaign, aimed at courting swing voters and moderates, rather than embracing a bold, confrontational stance that could have galvanized the anti-fascist, anti-MAGA coalition seen in 2020. The 2024 election was more than a battle of personalities; it represented a contest between two competing visions for the U.S.' future, underscoring the importance of political platforms over individual candidates.

Neoliberalism's crises and the fascist danger

The 2024 elections unfolded against the backdrop of a declining neoliberal order, a process set in motion by the 2008 financial crisis. This crisis created fertile ground for a global wave of ethnonationalist neofascism, with Donald Trump and the MAGA movement representing only the U.S. variant. Trump's 2016 victory, despite his losing the popular vote, signaled the start of a political crisis sparking resistance movements from the Women's March in 2017 to the Black Lives Matter uprisings in 2020. By 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic and its accompanying global economic crisis worsened inequality, while the January 6th insurrection exposed the ongoing neofascist attack on democracy.

Biden briefly united an anti-fascist, anti-MAGA coalition with a middle-of-the-road program focused on preserving democratic rights and stabilizing standards of living. However, this coalition began to fracture under pressures such as inflation, an immigration-related racial backlash, and imperialist wars abroad, particularly in Palestine. The transition from Biden to Harris represented an opportunity to unleash the combative energy of the anti-MAGA majority and shape the political trajectory of the country. Instead, her cautious, moderate campaign, focused on appealing to Republican moderates and swing voters, failed to turnout many who had already rejected Trump and MAGA in 2020. By neglecting to energize young voters or inspire those aging into the electorate, Harris created an opening for Trump to reclaim the presidency, enabling the GOP to present itself as the party of change despite a track record of increasing inequality and deepening division.

Trump's victory is not an isolated incident but the result of decades of corporate-conservative organizing, supported by Wall Street hedge fund managers and Silicon Valley tech billionaires. Key players in this effort, like the Federalist Society, have systematically reshaped the judiciary, capturing the Supreme Court to protect Trump and his allies from accountability. This consolidation of power reflects a broader "constitutional coup," aimed at dismantling democratic institutions to entrench far-right power. Meanwhile, conservative think tanks like the Heritage Foundation have developed a far-right blueprint, Project 2025, to remake the country in their image. In this context, fascism emerges as the ruling class's last-ditch effort to resolve its crises by substituting multiracial democracy in favor of open, white nationalist dictatorship.

Youth outreach effort and challenges

Numerous initiatives were launched to engage young voters, including on-the-ground organizing on college campuses, events like GOTV concerts and marches to the polls, and political influencer hype houses aimed at creating viral social media content. Both presidential candidates also appeared on prominent podcasts, with Trump on Joe Rogan's show and Harris on Alex Cooper's Call Her Daddy, a comedy and advice podcast. Additionally, many music artists, from Taylor Swift to Megan Thee Stallion, sought to mobilize their fan bases to support Harris. Despite these efforts, the youth vote remained underwhelming, particularly in swing states, which suggests a need to pair these newer approaches to outreach with old-school organizing tactics like deep canvassing and base-building on a neighborhood and state level. Widespread reports of long lines at polling stations and mail-in ballot issues also created barriers to youth participation, likely discouraging some from voting.

Motivations and demographic shifts

The motivations behind young voters' choices revealed some ambivalence, particularly among Harris supporters. When asked whether their vote was more about supporting their chosen candidate or opposing the other, 81% of young Trump voters stated that they were voting in support of Trump, while only 19% said their vote was against Harris. Conversely, among Harris voters, only 66% were motivated by support for her, while a notable 34% cast their vote primarily to oppose Trump. This ambivalence among Harris supporters underscores the challenges her campaign faced in generating genuine enthusiasm.

• Race
  • Young voters of color overwhelmingly supported Harris:
    • 74% of Black voters, 57% of Latino voters, and 72% of Asian voters under 30 backed her.
  • Young white voters favored Trump (54% for Trump vs. 44% for Harris). This was especially true in swing states like Wisconsin and Michigan, where white working-class voters are a critical demographic.
• Gender
  • A significant gender gap occurred among young voters:
    • Young women supported Harris by a wide margin (58% for Harris vs. 41% for Trump).
    • Young men favored Trump (56% for Trump vs. 42% for Harris). This represents a shift from 2020 when more young men supported Biden.
    • Nonbinary voters showed strong support for Harris (82%), aligning more with progressive policies.

This dramatic shift among young men is notable and can be attributed primarily to the unmatched right-wing media ecosystem aiming to recruit young men of all colors into support for the far-right MAGA agenda. This can be seen through tech billionaire Elon Musk's acquisition of Twitter, influential podcasters like Joe Rogan, and organizations like Turning Point USA.

State by State Trends

There were only three states - Maine, Wisconsin, and Indiana - where Harris's support from young voters under 30 outperformed Biden's in 2020. In crucial battlegrounds like Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, Harris clinched the youth vote, but by a narrower margin than Biden in 2020. In states like Louisiana, Missouri, Florida, Iowa, Ohio, Nebraska, South Carolina, and Texas, where Biden won the youth vote in 2020, young voters shifted toward Trump in 2024.

Disconnect between Democratic leadership and young voters

On November 7, 2023, several youth-led organizations, including March for Our Lives, Sunrise Movement, United We Dream, and Gen Z for Change, sent a letter to the Biden administration warning that its positions were "badly out of step with young people." They expressed growing frustration among young voters, stating, "We cannot explain your position to the people of our generation." This discontent highlights a growing disconnect between Democratic leadership and youth political priorities.

The economy and jobs were the top concerns for 40% of young voters, making this the most critical issue in the 2024 election. Following this, issues like abortion rights, democracy, immigration, and crime also held significant importance. Young voters who prioritized abortion overwhelmingly supported Harris, reflecting her campaign's alignment with reproductive rights. In contrast, those focused on economic issues or immigration leaned heavily toward Trump, indicating a dissatisfaction with the Democratic Party's handling of economic challenges.

Foreign policy, particularly U.S. involvement in Israel's war on Gaza, played a significant, but overlooked role in the 2024 election. While only 4% of youth voters listed foreign policy as their top issue, this figure likely underrepresents growing concerns about U.S. involvement in global conflicts. Among those who prioritized foreign policy, 8% voted for a third-party candidate, compared to just 1% of youth overall, suggesting a rising disillusionment with the bipartisan consensus on military interventions. When asked who they trusted more to handle "the situation in the Middle East," 45% of youth chose Trump, while only 32% trusted Harris. This indicates that Trump's message of keeping the U.S. out of wars resonated with young voters, particularly as the Democrats were seen as not taking strong enough action on issues like Israel-Palestine. The Harris campaign's failure to distance itself from Biden's policies on Israel, along with the arrest and harassment of over 2,000 pro-Palestinian students, likely also alienated many young voters. This allowed Trump to position himself as the peace candidate, despite his own vicious record on foreign interventions.

2024: A wake up call to the YCL

The 2024 presidential election highlights significant shifts within the youth generation, which seems to indicate that the Democratic Party failed to engage young voters, who are increasingly disillusioned with centrist politics and the lack of bold, combative leadership. The decline in youth support for Harris around economic issues, democratic rights, and foreign policy, suggests that future campaigns must better address the demands of an increasingly radicalized and politically conscious young generation who do care about those issues.

This election serves as a wake-up call: if the major parties do not address the needs and concerns of young people, they risk losing a critical and increasingly influential partner in future electoral coalitions.

The time has come to engage with young people in more meaningful ways. The Youth Communist League (YCL) is uniquely positioned to offer a political alternative that challenges the status quo, offering a vision for a better future that resonates with disillusioned youth.

To make this vision a reality, CPUSA districts should invite the National YCL Organizer to lead discussions on the role of the YCL in this political moment - our function as an organization of youth aligned with the Party, advancing Party policy in the youth and student movement, and building unity among anti-fascist and anti-imperialist youth. Additionally, these discussions should also include trainings on how to:

• Get started: Learning the fundamentals of youth organizing, including how to conduct 1-on-1 organizing conversations, recruit and develop an organizing committee of committed Communist youth, schedule meetings, and plan activities
• Build unity: Learn how to unite labor, faith, and community groups in broad coalitions, and how to structure issue-based campaigns that resonate with young workers in their communities or students on their campuses.

By combining foundational organizing methods - political education, mass action, and recreational activities - with innovative media strategy and digital organizing, we can equip young people with the skills needed to fight MAGA's fascist agenda and strengthen Resistance 2.0.

Image: People gather at a PA Youth Vote rally by Black Voters Matter Fund (X)

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