World Bank Tokyo Online Morning Seminar #203 “Middle East and North Africa Economic Update, October 2024: Growth in the Middle East and North Africa”

• OVERVIEW
• AGENDA
• SPEAKERS

Growth continues to be subdued in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) because of uncertainties heightened by the conflict in the region, says the World Bank in its latest semi-annual MENA Economic Update, entitled Growth in the Middle East and North Africa.

The report forecasts the region's overall gross domestic product (GDP) growth to rise modestly to 2.2 percent in 2024 in real terms, up from 1.8 percent in 2023. This uptick is driven by Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, where growth is projected to rise from 0.5 percent in 2023 to 1.9 percent in 2024. In the rest of MENA, growth is expected to decelerate. Oil importers' growth is forecast to slow from 3.2 percent in 2023 to 2.1 percent in 2024, and that of non-GCC oil exporters to decline from 3.2 percent to 2.7 percent.

The report uses an innovative measure - the dispersion of views amongst private sector forecasters - to gauge levels of uncertainty. By this measure, economic uncertainty in MENA is currently twice the average of other emerging markets and developing economies worldwide.

The ongoing conflict in the Middle East has already inflicted a heavy human and economic toll. The Palestinian territories are nearing economic collapse, with their largest economic contraction on record. Gaza's economy shrank by 86 percent in the first half of 2024 and the West Bank is facing an unprecedented fiscal and private sector crisis. In conflict-affected Lebanon, the outlook remains highly uncertain and will be shaped by the trajectory of the conflict. Meanwhile, other neighboring countries like Jordan and Egypt have been affected by declines in tourism receipts and fiscal revenues.

Conflict casts a long shadow on the development trajectories of countries. The report estimates that GDP per capita in conflict-affected countries in MENA could have been on average 45 percent higher, measured seven years after the onset of conflict. Such a loss is equivalent to the average progress made by the region over the last 35 years.

At this seminar, Jesica Torres, Senior Economist, Office of the Chief Economist for Middle East and North Africa, and Gianluca Mele, Lead Economist, Middle East and North Africa, will present the main points of the report. This online seminar will be held in English, without interpretation into Japanese.

Speakers:

Jesica Torres
Senior Economist, Office of the Chief Economist for Middle East and North Africa, World Bank

Gianluca Mele
Lead Economist, Middle East and North Africa, World Bank

Questions to the speakers:

Please send your questions by online form posted on this webpage.

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