Pennsylvania’s Hidden Factor

By Jim Ellis, BIPAC Senior Political Analyst
September 16, 2024

Takeaways:

• PA Partisan Registration Numbers Show Tighter Electorate
• Trump in Stronger PA Position Than in 2016 and 2020
• Republicans Won Aggregate Cong Vote in Last Two Pres Elections

Many political observers believe that the presidential election will be decided in the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania, citing current electoral vote map statistics indicating that neither candidate can realistically reach the 270 vote threshold without winning the Keystone State and its 19 electoral votes.

While Democrats have won 15 of the 19 statewide campaigns during the last dozen years, there is an underlying vote that suggests Donald Trump's chances of winning here, and therefore very possibly the Presidency, are improving.

In 2016, when Mr. Trump carried the Keystone State in the general election, the Pennsylvania Secretary of State's office reported that the Commonwealth featured 916,314 more registered Democrats than Republicans. Yet, Mr. Trump overcame the deficit to capture a 44,292 vote win.

The trends are much different in 2024. While the Democrats still have the registration advantage, their margin is now only 347,710 individuals, which represents a 62% drop-off factor during the eight-year period. With Trump polling better in Pennsylvania than in the two previous presidential campaigns, and the party registration deficit only one-third as severe, Mr. Trump's chances of carrying the critically important state are significantly better.

Looking at the Real Clear Politics Polling Archives, we see proof that Mr. Trump is performing much better against Ms. Harris than he did against Joe Biden or Hillary Clinton at the commensurate times in the 2020 and 2016 election cycles.

Looking at the current 2024 average of eleven Harris-Trump polls conducted since August 1st we see a dead heat tie between the two contenders. In the 2020 election, then-candidate Joe Biden led Mr. Trump by an average of five percentage points at this point in September. Four years earlier, Hillary Clinton led with a mean average spread of just over seven percentage points.

As mentioned above, in 2016, Mr. Trump rebounded from his polling deficit to win the state. Against Mr. Biden, while he failed to claim Pennsylvania, he cut his polling margin deficit to a 1.2 percentage loss.

The underlying hidden factor, however, may be the statewide aggregate congressional vote in each of those years. Adding the total number of Democratic and Republican votes cast for House of Representatives' candidates tells a different story than the Pennsylvanians' vote for their statewide candidates.

For example, while Mr. Trump and then-Sen. Pat Toomey (R) were winning close elections for President and US Senate, the aggregate congressional vote was even larger for the GOP. In this election, an expanded 53.9% of the electorate voted for a Republican US House candidate.

Similar results occurred in 2020 and 2022. Though Mr. Biden was winning the Presidency, the aggregate House vote still went Republican, with 50.6% of the electorate choosing a GOP nominee.

In 2022, despite Democrats winning the delegation majority under a Democratic state Supreme Court drawn map, 52.2% of the electorate chose a Republican candidate even though Democrats won nine of the state's 17 congressional seats. This, at the very time now-Gov. Josh Shapiro (D) was recording a 56% victory and now-Sen. John Fetterman notched a five point winning margin.

These underlying trends tell us three things. First, that there are more Pennsylvanians willing to vote Republican than the statewide historical numbers suggest; second, that this underlying vote will be found in the rural regions; and, third, to expect the Trump campaign to maximize their turnout operations in all of the state's rural areas.

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"The Daily" political analysis article is from BIPAC Senior Political Analyst Jim Ellis. BIPAC is an independent, bipartisan organization. It is provided solely as a membership benefit to the organization's member companies and trade associations. The views and opinions expressed do not necessarily represent those of any particular member or the organization generally.

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