First study to quantify global earthquake risk to mineral supplies

Earthquakes have the potential to substantially affect mining operations, leading to supply chain disruptions that adversely affect the global economy. This new study quantifies that risk to copper and rhenium supply by examining the impact of earthquakes on mining, smelting, and refining operations across the globe. Many of the largest copper mines and processing facilities are concentrated in the highly seismic regions of South America, East Asia, and the Pacific with the resultant potential for cascading effects on the entire copper supply chain. Rhenium is a byproduct produced at some copper mines and therefore has similar risk.

"The potential impacts of earthquake hazards on global mineral commodity supplies have previously not been systemically quantified" said Dr. Nedal Nassar, USGS Chief of Minerals Intelligence Research.

"While our study assessed the potential for the disruption to the supplies of copper and rhenium due to earthquake hazards, this published framework will serve as a template for other mineral commodities of interest around the world," said Dr. Kishor Jaiswal, USGS research structural engineer and lead author of the study.

Results of this study could be incorporated into economic models that would provide insights into the impacts of supply disruptions. Such analyses could be useful to national governments, mining companies, development organizations and insurance companies in making key management and business decisions.

The study may be found here: https://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2024/1028/ofr20241028.pdf

# # #

The USGS provides science for a changing world. Learn more at www.usgs.gov or follow us on Facebook @USGeologicalSurvey, YouTube @USGS, Instagram @USGS, or X (formerly Twitter) @USGS.