Strategic Authoritarian Narratives in the Sahel

In recent years, countries in the Sahel region of Africa have faced widespread insecurity and instability. Stretching across the northern tier of sub-Saharan Africa, Sahel countries Niger, Mali, and Burkina Faso have all experienced a series of military coups and rising levels of right-wing extremism. Poverty, environmental degradation, and competition for scarce resources like uranium, have further exacerbated this situation, creating a volatile mix of factors that have fueled social unrest and enabled the expansion of terrorist groups operating in these countries.

Since the 1990s, the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) has been pivotal in managing political instability and coups within its member states, including Niger, Mali, and Burkina Faso. However, the July 2023 coup in Niger marked a significant turning point for regional politics. In response to the coup, ECOWAS issued an ultimatum to coup leaders, threatening military intervention if Nigerien President Bazoum was not returned to power. The military juntas of Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger responded to this threat by forming the Alliance of Sahel States (AES), pledging to jointly counter any ECOWAS military intervention.

The ongoing political instability in these Sahel states, as well as their strategic geographical location and resource wealth, have also opened the door for foreign interference. Russia has been particularly active in Sahel countries, often through proxy actors such as its private military firm, the Wagner Group, which has provided security services and training to local forces. Additionally, the Wagner Group has been engaged in extensive information operations in the region, which have continued under Russia's military intelligence, the GRU, following the attempted coup and death of Yevgeny Prigozhin in 2023.

Using ECOWAS's threat of military intervention in Niger during the 2023 coup as a case study, this paper explores how strategic authoritarian narratives are shaping conversations about democracy and regional security in the Sahel. We define strategic authoritarian narratives as the strategic and purposeful use of narrative, messaging, and information by authoritarian states to advance an illiberal agenda and undermine democratic principles and institutions. As a collection of persuasive stories, strategic authoritarian narratives provide a framework for analyzing information operations, where misleading information, concealing crucial facts, and the delegitimization of adversarial narratives are tactics used strategically to promote authoritarian agendas.

Overall, this paper provides important insights into how strategic authoritarian narratives are being employed to undermine democratic governance and regional security in the Sahel. By unpacking the key narratives, language dynamics, and connections to known Russian influence operations, we also offer policymakers and civil society actors a deeper understanding of the information environment shaping political discourse in the region. Crucially, our analysis highlights the need for more robust monitoring and programming to challenge the spread of not only misleading information, but anti-democratic messaging via strategic storytelling. As the Sahel faces complex security threats and political instability, recognizing and responding to these strategic authoritarian narratives will be essential for supporting resilient institutions, protecting human rights, and fostering sustainable peace and development in the region.