U.S. Election's Impact on Trade – Agreement on Problems, Not on Solutions

U.S. Election's Impact on Trade - Agreement on Problems, Not on Solutions

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As the 2024 U.S. presidential and congressional elections approach, both major political parties have converged around a need to refocus U.S. trade policy. However, their policy proposals differ markedly, and these differences are poised to redefine the global economic landscape.

In her proposal, Vice President Kamala Harris claims the significant investments of the Biden administration were a key source of increased manufacturing employment, but her industrial policy proposals do not match them in scale. Nonetheless, Harris does not entirely eschew industrial policy with $100 billion in planned tax credits over a decade.

Former President Donald Trump similarly plans to restore U.S. companies and attract foreign direct investment. Trump's plan is focused on a combination of across-the-board tariffs on foreign goods, tax incentives for U.S. production, and business environment improvements.

Both candidates prioritize creating jobs and supporting traditional industries, but the approaches are substantially different. The Trump and Harris campaigns reinforce the conclusion that China will remain the focus of U.S. trade policy regardless of the election's emerging winner.

What Is Happening

Vice President Kamala Harris released her economic plan. The bulk of her investments are poised to impact services with a smaller investment in the modernization of traditional industries alongside advanced industries.

Why It Matters

Harris did not directly address her position on tariffs but indicated an agreement on the role of trade policy in protecting industrial policy investments. The identified industries may hint at where Harris will focus her attention should she take office.

What Happens Next

With less than a month until the November election, this may be the most comprehensive look at Harris' economic plans. Her focus on taxes will need to pass through a Congress that is potentially split and/or marred by slim majorities for either party.

For more details, please read the complete analysis on the Onyx Vantage Point blog or contact our representatives for more information.

Onyx Strategic Insights is hosting a webinar, "Trade Policy Focal Point: U.S. 2024 Elections" on October 17, 2024, at 08:00 AM Pacific Time. Register here to gain insights into the real-world implications of new policies. We will unravel the proposed policies, dissect the realities of their implementation, and analyze their potential impacts on businesses worldwide. Our experts will present various scenarios, leveraging macroeconomic modeling, deep supply chain knowledge, and extensive policy coverage to give you the edge in understanding these critical developments.