What could the new Trump administration’s telecom policies look like

Donald Trump will return to the White House next year after making an historic election comeback earlier this month.

Throughout his campaign, there has been little talk of his approach to telecoms, but the policies he enacts over his next four years in power could shape the future of America's digital economy and its competitiveness on the global stage.

Trump's previous term saw deregulation efforts, tax reforms and a tough stance on China - policies that were intended to boost domestic business but also sparked significant debate over national security and fair competition.

What directions might a renewed Trump administration pursue, and what impacts could they have for the millions of Americans who rely on telecom services daily?

Net neutrality

In the ongoing game of legislative ping-pong, some of the easiest moves a new Trump administration can make will be the un-undoing of his previous policies.

Net neutrality - introduced under the Obama administration, scrapped during Trump's first term, then reintroduced by Biden - is likely to be scrapped once again, giving CSPs free reign to prioritise certain types of traffic or preferred content based on commercial deals, like when Comcast charged extra for HD video streams in 2018.

Tariffs

As for newer policies, the radical proposal to place tariffs of 10% on all imported goods (and as high as 60% for Chinese goods) would significantly raise costs for CSPs, who face higher expenses for the imported hardware which is crucial for 5G rollout and network upgrades, potentially leading to delays, especially in rural and underserved areas. As a result, consumers might experience higher service and device costs, while smaller CSPs could struggle to compete.

In the long term, these tariffs may push the industry toward the onshoring of manufacturing, fed by government support, like the billions of dollars the outgoing administration has given to TSMC to expand its operations in Arizona. However, this shift would require time and substantial investment, likely resulting in fewer choices and higher prices in the interim.

The FCC

Much of the Trump administration's telecoms policy will be dictated by his choice of FCC Chair, replacing Biden pick Jessica Rosenworcel; Brendan Carr has been appointed to the role, having previously been an aide to then-commissioner Ajit Pai under Trump in 2017.

According to his FCC biography, Carr has focused on expanding the country's skilled telecoms workforce through jobs initiative programmes, and spearheaded the Connected Care Pilot Program, supporting the delivery of emerging telehealth services.

Carr has also come out against plans to investigate broadband data caps, branding the move an "inexorable march towards rate regulation ", and is likely to go after current plans to enforce pricing transparency for connectivity services, as well as the recently-announced review into CSP customer service practices.

Carr is also the author of a chapter on the FCC for Project 2025, a sweeping series of "ultra-conservative" policy proposals to radically transform the executive office; these include forcing Big Tech companies to contribute their fair share to infrastructure, and to "empower consumers" by allowing them to "choose their own content filters and fact checkers."

Though Trump has alleged no knowledge of Project 2025, which ranks unfavourably even among his own supporters, 140 of his former staffers worked on the report, including Vice President-elect JD Vance, who wrote its foreword.

Another Project 2025 policy to pack the administration with Trump loyalists might explain the ideological uniformity of other prospective candidates for the FCC Chair role, such as fellow FCC Commissioner Nathan Simington, who was responsible for a laboured coffee analogy to explain his opposition to data price caps.

Satellite communications

Brendan Carr isn't the only figure who could be steering Trump's policies; Elon Musk is also likely to hold significant sway, after lending his support - and millions of dollars - to the re-election campaign.

Musk's loyalty to Trump could be repaid through Starlink's inclusion in the Broadband Equity, Access and Deployment (BEAD) programme, which has been ploughing billions of dollars into building out fibre across America's rural areas instead of using LEO satellites; "We're spending a trillion dollars to get cables all over the country... Elon can do it for nothing," Trump told Joe Rogan on his podcast. At the very least, Musk will be looking to get back the nearly $900 million in rural broadband subsidies that he was denied by the FCC last year.

Though the two tempestuous billionaires now enjoy a cordial relationship, it's worth remembering that they previously worked together during the last administration. Musk joined Trump's business council, only to leave after Trump withdrew the US from the Paris climate agreement, leading Trump to brand his ventures "worthless" without government subsidies (of which Musk has taken nearly $5 billion).

AI

Though we were warned that AI-powered misinformation would dominate this year's election cycle, this was largely not the case, as the most salacious falsehoods spread were made the old-fashioned way.

Among Trump's last acts of office in 2020 was to sign an Executive Order "promoting the use of trustworthy artificial intelligence." For his second, post-GenAI term, he promises to "Make America First in AI." To this end, he has promised to repeal Biden's "radical leftwing" Executive Order on AI, which has been considered an attempt to stifle conservative viewpoints, and loosen the guardrails on AI development, potentially accelerating innovation.

Mergers

In line with the Republican approach to "small government, big business," expect the Trump administration to be more amenable to mergers, with a preference for structural remedies. As such, Trump seems likely to wind back on anti-trust investigations into Google.

Any interventions into industry dealings are likely to be more politically-motivated, particularly against firms who are perceived to be "censoring" conservative viewpoints, as with Trump's previous attempt to block the AT&T / Time Warner merger in 2017, done only to spite the Time Warner-owned CNN.

To this end, the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) Chair Lina Khan, who has pursued an aggressive anti-trust agenda against Google, as well as Amazon, Apple and Meta, since her appointment in 2021, could also face the axe, though she has an unlikely ally in JD Vance, who said she was "one of the few people in the Biden administration… doing a pretty good job."

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