Looming Uncertainty for the Special Relationship

Commentary by Max Bergmann

Published September 26, 2024

This commentary is part of a report from the CSIS Geopolitics and Foreign Policy Department entitled The Global Impact of the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election. The report features a set of essays assessing the meaning of the election for Europe, Russia, Eurasia, the Indo-Pacific, the Americas, Africa, and the Middle East.

The United Kingdom is not usually known for its July 4 celebrations, but this year it held a general election to mark the day. By the time the next U.S. president is elected, Sir Keir Starmer, whose center-left Labour government won the election by a landslide, will have been in power for five months. The United Kingdom is a major power with a global outlook and remains the closest U.S. ally. Establishing a common agenda with London should be a priority in the first 100 days of a Harris or Trump administration. And private sector-driven engagement

Two Diverging Paths

The outcome of the U.S. election could have a significant impact on the U.S.-UK special relationship-so called because it is the closest and deepest relationship Washington shares with any other nation. As a member of the UN Security Council and G7; a nuclear weapons power; and a leading global military, cyber, and science power, the United Kingdom is a powerful ally for Washington. Recent examples include support to Ukraine, where the United Kingdom has trained thousands of troops since 2014. The United Kingdom has consistently led Europe in providing aid to Ukraine since 2022, including being first to give Kyiv main battle tanks and long-range missiles. The United Kingdom has also executed joint U.S.-UK strikes in response to Houthi attacks in the Red Sea and participated in the AUKUS initiative with the United States to provide Australia with nuclear-powered submarines and develop advanced technology.

Traditionally, the U.S.-UK relationship has been strong regardless of the political parties occupying the White House or 10 Downing Street. For instance, former UK prime minister Tony Blair had strong relations with Presidents Bill Clinton and George W. Bush. Yet the outcome of this election holds two very divergent tracks for the special relationship.

Should Trump win the election, the United States and United Kingdom would have two leaders from different ends of the political spectrum. This situation would create a very different dynamic from Trump's first term, when the United Kingdom had conservative leaders and had just voted for Brexit, which Trump also strongly supported. In particular, Prime Minister Boris Johnson and his similar brand of populist politics meant the United Kingdom maintained much closer relations with Washington than other European allies. Under Starmer, the UK leader will face cross-cutting pressures. On the one hand, the United Kingdom has a long-standing foreign policy objective to maintain the special relationship. As new foreign secretary David Lammy has stated: "We should not fail to recognise that the US will remain the UK's most essential ally, whoever occupies the White House." On the other hand, Trump remains deeply unpopular in the United Kingdom, especially among Labour supporters. Furthermore, Blair's decision to invade Iraq, standing with the Bush administration and breaking with France and Germany, has been heavily criticized. Thus, Starmer may face political pressures to confront Trump along the lines of the movie Love Actually, in which a fictional UK prime minister portrayed by Hugh Grant patriotically stands up to the U.S. president portrayed by Billy Bob Thornton.

Should Harris win, however, there will be an opportunity to revive the special relationship. U.S.-UK relations have lost some of their significance to Washington following Brexit, as the United Kingdom's influence in Europe has been greatly diminished. But with Starmer and Harris being cut from the same political cloth and with both being former prosecutors, there could be opportunity to revive the significance and closeness of the relationship. The United Kingdom's overall approach to foreign policy under Labour, described as "Britain Reconnected" and "Progressive Realism," could align well with a Harris administration. A recent essay in Foreign Affairs by David Lammy explains how Progressive Realism "advocates using realist means to pursue progressive ends." Labour is also seeking to rebuild its relationship with the European Union, which a Harris government would strongly support.

What a Harris or Trump Administration Should Focus on in Its First 100 Days

The UK agenda usefully highlights several policy priorities for a new U.S. administration to focus on in its first 100 days.

1. Reconnecting with Europe. A new White House of either stripe should support a stronger relationship between the United Kingdom and Europe for the simple reason that this would support the main U.S. foreign policy goal: to compete with China. A unified European position on China is a stronger one. A UK-EU security pact would also strengthen cooperation on security and the defense industry, meaning a stronger "European pillar" of NATO to deter Russia and a Europe less reliant on the United States to support Ukraine and defend itself. Moreover, Washington lost its traditional bridge with Europe after Brexit, so Starmer restoring good relations with Europe from outside the European Union would be a boon for Harris or Trump.
2. Strengthening UK defense. The United Kingdom's ongoing Strategic Defence Review-which is set to conclude by July 2025-will hopefully lead to a stronger UK military. One immediate priority will be maintaining momentum on the AUKUS agreement, which helps Australia play its part to counter Chinese aggression. AUKUS also highlights the crucial UK-U.S. nuclear relationship. The long-standing UK-U.S. Mutual Defense Agreement is set to expire at the end of 2024 and will therefore be an early priority for a new administration.
3. Trade agreement. The United Kingdom made no headway negotiating a new free trade agreement during Trump's first term, and with Trump now pledging to increase tariffs, a second administration would be unlikely to make much progress. Further, the Biden administration made no efforts to negotiate a new trade deal, as the administration, as well as Congress, appears deeply skeptical of trade agreements. It is unclear whether a Harris administration would adopt the same approach. However, a new Labour government could be an ideal partner for negotiating a new type of progressive fair trade agreement focused on the green economy. If the United States cannot do a trade deal with the United Kingdom, it is unlikely to make trade agreements with anyone.
4. Climate action and green energy. The prospective Harris and Trump agendas diverge significantly on this area. Harris at least should recruit the United Kingdom as a key ally in the green transition, as its Clean Power Alliance offers a new format to pursue cutting-edge climate diplomacy.
   

The U.S.-UK relationship is likely strong enough to survive any storm. But a Harris administration would likely offer far smoother sailing for the special relationship than another Trump administration.

Max Bergmann is the director of the Europe, Russia, and Eurasia Program and the Stuart Center in Euro-Atlantic and Northern European Studies at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, D.C.

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