JLL names top 2024 cities for graduates to establish careers

CHICAGO, August 23, 2024 - In a study analyzing 1.6 million graduate counts and residing markets, JLL's Talent Hubs 2024 Reportidentifies the top cities where 2024 graduates will start their careers and explores how these location decisions offer insight into the health and growth of office markets across the U.S.

Each year, over 1 million college graduates migrate from classrooms to workspaces, comprising roughly 3% of total U.S. office attendees. Forming a robust pipeline of new office users, graduates are among the most frequent attendees. Where a graduate chooses to begin their careers often reflects a multi-decade commitment to reside in that city, and JLL's analysis helps not only understand migration trends but illuminates the future of the U.S. office market, including which cities will be positioned for outpaced growth in the upcoming cycle.

Major metros on east and west coasts continue to capture highly skilled graduate talent.

The East Coast continued to capture the greatest regional share of graduates, with New York remaining the number one market for graduates to establish their careers, accounting for a 10.8% share of total 2024 graduates, followed by Los Angeles, San Francisco and Boston. With these major metropolitan areas serving as hubs for office-using industries like technology and finance, job availability for college graduates remains robust in these areas and continues to attract highly skilled talent. In fact, 44% of 2024 graduates - and 77% of elite graduates (those graduating from top 20 universities) - are concentrated in the top 10 major metro markets.

"By virtue of robust job availability, most major office markets are continuing to attract a disproportionate amount of college grads, serving as talent magnets that entice pipelines from nearby metros and other markets entirely," said Jacob Rowden, Senior Manager, Office Research at JLL. "Most new graduates will never relocate to a different metro after establishing their career, so in capturing a greater share of newly minted talent, these cities are creating a positive feedback loop that will help drive long-term innovation and stronger economic outcomes."

Importance of physical attendance for new employees drives down locational flexibility.

After the pandemic spurred the world's largest remote-working experiment, the value of the physical office has been reinforced as a critical hub for collaboration, innovation and professional growth. Among younger talent specifically, office attendance has been found to be especially beneficial in building skills development, increasing visibility from leadership, and fostering stronger social connections.

While extremely low interest rates and a robust job market in 2021-2022 introduced more locational flexibility than office workers had ever seen, higher interest rates and widespread adoption of hybrid work models have begun to normalize that flexibility. In fact, the Class of 2024 will be the first graduating class since the onset of the pandemic that will predominantly be expected to regularly attend the office at the outset of their roles. With most private employers having solidified office attendance policies, JLL's Q2 U.S. Office Outlookfinds return-to-office rates across the U.S. have continued to stabilize, where the average office attendance requirement for Fortune 100 employees has reached 3.11 days in July.

Cost-of-living is impacting location decisions, driving more graduates to affordable Sun Belt markets.

Despite the U.S. gradually moving toward normalized market conditions, cyclical pressures are still present. With inflation and a softening labor market, graduates are now more heavily considering cost-of-living and job availability into their relocation decisions. These factors have modified typical migration distribution, driving more graduates to remain in their university metros for an extended period or relocate to smaller, more affordable markets.

This includes less costly Sun Belt markets, which are attracting a growing share of the Class of 2024, including Atlanta, Austin, Charlotte, Dallas, and Raleigh-Durham. Since 2015, Sun Belt markets have seen a 31% increase in knowledge economy job growth, compared to the +14% U.S. national and +11% gateway markets job growth average. The greater emphasis on affordability is also driving more graduates to Midwest markets like Cincinnati, Columbus and Pittsburgh, and suburban regions, which have captured 38,000 more graduates in 2024 than a typical year.

Graduates have seen considerable volatility in how and where they work in the wake of the pandemic, but we're finally reaching a new equilibrium. As office attendance stabilizes and companies solidify their hybrid work programs, university ecosystems and a strong pipeline of graduates are well positioned to serve as a catalyst for U.S. office market growth.

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