The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) released its seasonal projection for Harmful Algal Blooms (HABs) in Western Lake Erie for 2024. These blooms, made up of cyanobacteria or blue-green algae, can produce toxins that are dangerous to humans and animals, foul coastlines, and disrupt the lives of people and businesses that depend on the lake.

NOAA and partners predict a moderate to larger-than-moderate bloom this summer in western Lake Erie, with a severity around 5 on a 1-10 scale and a possible range between 4.5-6.

Blue-Green Algae (photo from Ohio DNR)

This forecast is based on the levels of phosphorus and river flow in the Maumee River from March 1 to July 31. Weather conditions in July through September can influence the toxicity and location of the bloom with peak blooms starting in August and continuing into September. Calm weather can lead to the development of scum on the water surface. Toxins can become highly concentrated in surface scum.

Ohio experienced a very rainy early spring in 2024, which means more phosphorus was washed into Lake Erie, influencing the forecasted severity for this summer's blooms. Even with drier weather later in the season, the phosphorus from early spring remains, contributing to the expected bloom size in August and September.

Last month, NWF and its partners released a white paper titled "Strategies to Achieve Phosphorus Reduction Targets for Lake Erie." The paper highlights recent water quality data reports and the lack of significant reductions in phosphorus levels. The paper acknowledges the hard work of many partners and the value of current programs aimed at reducing phosphorus. The authors support these efforts while acknowledging more action is needed to meet phosphorus reduction goals.

Harmful algae bloom. Pelee Island, Ohio. Lake Erie. Photo by T. Archer.

The authors of the white paper call for public agencies to honor their previous commitments to adaptive management, which means adjusting strategies based on new information. For example, scientists are learning that small areas within agricultural fields with high phosphorus levels can disproportionately contribute to higher amounts of phosphorus runoff. There are opportunities to redesign existing programs to target these areas more effectively without the need for increases in funding. Additionally, agricultural retailers, who work directly with farmers, can play a crucial role in providing technical support and services to reduce phosphorus runoff more quickly.

The white paper offers several recommendations, including revising incentives for farmers to accelerate adoption of conservation practices and support adoption of multiple practices in one location. With climate change increasing the frequency and intensity of spring storms, it is also essential to use techniques that hold back the water to slow down and reduce phosphorus runoff into the lake. The paper urges everyone involved to think creatively and collaborate to tackle nutrient pollution in Lake Erie. It's time to adjust our course and find new solutions to achieve our phosphorus reduction goals.

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