2024 Election - Implications on Real Estate

Under a Harris administration, a continued robust regulatory environment can be expected. The focus would likely remain on promoting green energy projects and environmental sustainability. This approach could have multiple implications for the real estate sector, particularly through encouraging investments in sustainable housing and construction practices.

Furthermore, while we wait to see the Basel III Endgame re-proposal, it is likely that a Harris administration will implement it, which could result in increased banking costs and alternative funding structures (securitization vs. direct lending) to achieve better capital treatment. While this may make banks more resilient, private credit and non-bank lenders may benefit as they are able to finance on more competitive terms.

In contrast, a Trump administration would likely pursue deregulation through executive orders, bypassing the need for Congressional action. This could lead to significant changes in the regulatory landscape affecting the real estate sector. While Trump has not directly commented on Basel III Endgame, conservative appointees might undermine the proposal, making bank lending less costly. However, significant bank deregulation could pose risks of bank closures, impacting real estate financing.

The SEC's Greenhouse Gas Disclosure Rule, currently paused, is likely to be abandoned if Trump is re-elected. This could reduce compliance costs for real estate firms, but may face legal challenges following the Loper Bright decision. Additionally, Trump may limit regulations impacting homebuilding and open federal lands for development, potentially increasing the supply of housing.