Ohio Election 2024- Recap

11/06/24

It is November 6, 2024,and EVERYBODY can be happy about one thing - no more political ads. At least until the next election. But now we get relief from political negativity during football games just to be reminded how much the Browns and Bengals provide ample negativity on their own. I kid. But folks, we made it. Let usbreak down the results in Ohio from the election yesterday.

Trump wins Ohio by 10%+There were a lot of factors at play contributing to President-elect Donald Trump's victory over Vice President Kamala Harris last night. But one thing is abundantly clear: Ohio has become scarlet red. Yesterday's performance for Trump in Ohio puts an exclamation point on his popularity and Republican strength in the Buckeye State. In 2016, he won Ohio by eight percent. In 2020, he won by eight percent and slightly more votes than in 2016. Last night, he won Ohio by close to 11 percent.

Bernie Moreno Ousts Sen. Sherrod BrownSenator-elect Bernie Moreno benefitted significantly from Trump being at the top of the ticket, handily beating incumbent Senator Sherrod Brown by more than four percent. This was long seen as a top target for Republicans to flip, with Brown seen as a tough but beatable incumbent. Not only does this end Brown's long tenure in Congress, but italso helped hand Republicans the majority in the US Senate. With Ohio's other US Senator JD Vance being elected Vice President, Ohio will gain two new Senators next year. Governor Mike DeWine will appoint Vance's replacement after Vance resigns to assume his new office.

Congressional Delegation Stays Intact All 15 members of the Ohio Congressional Delegation won reelection last night. There were afew close races for the incumbent Democrats Marcy Kaptur from the Toledo region and Emilia Sykes from the Akron area, but both ultimately won their races.

Issue 1 Goes DownThe controversial and political gerrymandering constitutional amendment was soundly denied by Ohio voters. The ballot issue lost by seven percent and just over 400k votes. While this result prevents any change to our current system of drawing electoral maps, current Ohio law makes it easy for this ballot issue to get raised again in future elections. Watch out for a gerrymandering-related amendment to appear again soon, possibly inan off-year election where turnout is historically low.

Republicans Sweep Supreme Court SeatsAll threeRepublican judicial candidates for the Ohio Supreme Court won their seats handily. By a partisan count, Republicans now hold a 6-1 majority on this bench. Party affiliation is not always a sure indicator of how a judge makes rulings, however all three have pledged not to be activist judges who legislate from the bench.

Republicans Retain Statehouse Senate MajoritiesWhile Republicans lost a few seats in the Ohio House and at least one in the Senate, the party in charge still has a veto-proof majority in both chambers. All eyes will now be on theOhioHouse Speaker election in January. However, with Democrats not able to make meaningful gainseven with new legislative maps,that should have made it easier on paper. Across the state, down-ballot Republican candidates benefitted froma strong Donald Trump performance at the top of the ticket.

What comes next?Your advocacy team here at OBL now looks ahead to how these changing dynamics will shape policymaking for at least the next few years. Regardless of the election results, it is important for you to stay engaged and aware, so you are prepared for any changes tothe banking industry that come out of Columbus and DC. If you have any questions on Ohio politics, please feel free to reach out to meat [email protected]. If you have an interest in the political side of the equation of our workand are interested in getting involved, please feel free to send me a note and I would be happy to discuss how you cansupport our efforts.

Fun Fact:The 2000 Presidential Election was not resolved with a resultuntil a federal court ruling well after the election on December 12.