'This Conflict Won’t Stop at the Borders of the Middle East’

Could the conflict in the Middle East escalate into a full-scale war? And how much do the tensions between Iran and Israel-once allies, now sworn enemies-contribute to this? 'An open war would be an utter disaster for Iranian citizens, who have already been suffering for years under heavy state repression and an economic crisis,' says Iran expert and VUB political scientist Elly Mansoury.

The long-running shadow war between Iran and Israel now threatens to escalate alongside the war between Israel and Hamas. Their enmity has deep roots, doesn't it?

Elly Mansoury: "The conflict began around 40 years ago with the Islamic Revolution in 1979. The Shah of Iran was deposed, and a new Islamic government led by Ayatollah Khomeini came to power. All ties with Israel were severed, and Israel was viewed as the archrival of the Islamic regime because it was increasingly seen as a colonial threat to the Palestinians and, by extension, the entire region. The new Gaza war has only heightened the already tense relationship between the two nations in recent months. Iran not only supports the Palestinian militant group Hamas in Gaza but also the Shia Hezbollah movement in Lebanon, both staunch enemies of Israel."

Were there specific triggers for this latest surge in tensions between the two countries?

Mansoury: "One trigger was Israel's airstrike on the Iranian embassy in the Syrian capital, Damascus, on 1 April this year, killing 13 people. Another was Israel's ground offensive in southern Lebanon at the end of September, during which Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah was killed in an air raid on a suburb of Beirut. In retaliation, Iran's military launched nearly 200 ballistic missiles at Israel on 1 October. This is likely to lead to another Israeli reprisal attack. But it's still unclear how or when. For now, it seems Israel has been given 'carte blanche' by its Western allies, including Europe. If you look at how this war keeps expanding, how the people in Gaza are being subjected to inhumane conditions, and how Israel is even targeting UN peacekeepers in Lebanon, it doesn't seem like Israel will stop anytime soon. And it seems no one will stop them either."

"I think we're facing another moral crisis."

So, things are only likely to get worse?

Mansoury: "What's particularly dangerous is the rhetoric coming from Netanyahu: 'We're making progress. We're weakening Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah.' It's military language, with no hint of creating security, either in the Middle East or in Europe and the US. We all remember the attacks by ISIS, and I fear something similar will happen again unless there's a ceasefire and political and just solutions are found for Palestine, for the Palestinians, and for the Israeli hostages."

What do you think Israel's next move will be after the recent Iranian missile attack?

Mansoury: "The Israeli military is obviously keeping quiet on this. There have been talks between the US and Israel, during which Biden indicated he would not support an attack on Iran's nuclear facilities. However, Israel doesn't always follow such advice. There are three possible options at the moment: 1. An attack on those nuclear sites, although this is strongly discouraged by the US; 2. An attack on Iran's oil installations. Iran has already warned its Arab neighbours that if they open their airspace for an Israeli attack, Iran will retaliate by targeting their oil reserves, which could lead to a global oil crisis; and 3. An attack on Iran's military bases."

You have Iranian roots and live in Belgium. How hard is it for you to follow the situation in your homeland?

Mansoury: "It weighs heavily on me. Very heavily. Physically, I'm here, but my roots are in Iran. The first thing I do every morning is check all the international news reports. Every night, I find myself worrying about what might have happened during the hours I was asleep. It's very painful. We all know that Israel has the upper hand in terms of military and technological strength. So, what does the future hold? For now, it's anyone's guess how far this war will spread and what the consequences will be for Palestinians, Lebanese, Iranians, Jordanians, and so on."

How is the Iranian population reacting to this conflict and the threat of war?

Mansoury: "There's a lot of anxiety. A portion of the population supports the regime and agrees with whatever actions are taken, as long as they align with their ideology. Another portion might sympathise with Israel, not because they support Israel but out of anger at Iran's repressive regime. The 'Woman, Life, Freedom' protests in 2022-23 didn't overthrow the Islamic regime, but they did spark a cultural and feminist revolution. Despite the brutal crackdown by the riot police and morality police, there are still Iranian women, supported by men, who walk the streets without wearing a hijab. But the majority are mainly afraid of further instability, in addition to the economic crisis that's plagued the country for years. With inflation at around 40 percent and the currency continuing to plummet, most Iranians are struggling to keep their heads above water, and they're terrified that a war will only make things worse."

What's your view on how the Western press (and the average person) perceives Iran and this protracted conflict? Neutral enough or with a certain bias?

Mansoury: "I think we're facing another moral crisis. After World War II and the Holocaust, we said, 'Never again.' The United Nations was founded to prevent genocide and oppression. But, to be blunt, I feel that today, after events like the genocide in Rwanda and Bosnia, those ideals are losing weight. Some countries speak out against Israel, condemning the horrors that Palestinians are enduring, but you can also see that democratic values and human rights often don't extend beyond Western countries. There seems to be a double standard. When we look at the war between Russia and Ukraine, we all agree that occupying another country is unacceptable. Yet, Israel has been doing the same with Palestine for decades, and many politicians seem to see it differently."

Could this conflict, this potential war, have consequences for the West?

Mansoury: "This war may seem like a distant issue for 'us,' but unfortunately, it's far more connected to Europe and our security than we realise. Many analysts believe that ISIS emerged after the US invasion of Iraq. In that sense, Netanyahu's rhetoric of 'We'll dismantle them, and then everything will be fine' is simplistic and incredibly dangerous. This conflict won't stop at the borders of the Middle East."*

BIO

Elly Mansoury is a Belgian-Iranian political scientist at the VUB.

*This is a machine translation. We apologize for any inaccuracies.