Grain Market Update 27th June

Market Prices and News

Global wheat prices declined further last week. Principal drivers of this slump include harvest pressure from the start of US wheat harvest, improvement in weather conditions in other key wheat producing areas and no further changes to forecast output. Markets are likely to remain very responsive to weather forecasts and trends in the coming weeks.

MATIF Dec-24 futures declined by €11.25/t in the week up to June 21st closing at €233.50/t. CBOT Dec-24 futures dropped 7.8% in the same period. The contract has seen further losses in trading this week and closed at €228.50/t on Tuesday, June 25th.

Winter wheat harvesting in the USA is 40% complete up to June 23rd, according to the USDA. This compares with 21% harvested on the same period last year.

On Tuesday June 25th, Tirlan offered €200/t for green wheat and €180/t for green barley, down €9-10/t on the offer of two weeks previous.

FOB Creil malting barley prices dropped further last week to close at €248/t on Thursday June 20th.The rolling average for Boortmalt suppliers is now €265.75/t.

Plentiful maize supplies for 2024/2025 are also adding to pressure on wheat prices. US maize crop conditions are rated as 69% good, despite weather extremes of high heat in the eastern corn belt (Indiana/Ohio) and intense rainfall in southern Minnesota and south Dakota. By comparison US maize at this stage last year was rated 50% good (USDA).

Paris rapeseed futures fell by €4.00/t to close at €471.75/t week up to Friday June 21st. Trading this week has seen a small recovery for this contract to €477/t on Wednesday evening.

On Tuesday June 25th, Tirlan offered €430/t for green oilseed rape, dried Irish OSR is approximately €465-470/t for harvest.

Rapeseed prices are being pressurised by good soybean crops in the USA and competitively priced sunflower oils from the Black Sea regions (AHDB).

Global Grain Supply and Demand

Wheat output in Germany is expected to decrease by 5.5% to 20.34MMT in 2024/25 according to DGRV, the German Agri-Cooperative Association has said.

Russian analyst IKAR increased its forecast for the Russian wheat crop by 0.5MMt to 82MMT following recent rainfall. Harvesting of wheat has commenced in the very southern regions of Russia.

EU Commission MARS report this month revised yields downwards for most arable crops compared with last month across Europe, however, forecasts remain at 5-year average levels. EU spring barley yields are predicted to be 7% higher than the 5-year average in 2024.