Introduction to Cleveland Fed Summary of Regional Conditions and Expectations (SORCE)

The Regional Analysis group¹at the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland monitors the economy in the Fourth Federal Reserve District²by tracking a variety of data and gathering information from people in the community. One of the ways we gather this information is a survey of business and community leaders, which we refer to as the Fourth District Conditions Survey. This survey generates valuable information on economic conditions that is more timely than most economic statistics, such as employment and output estimates. It also provides an opportunity for survey respondents to share their concerns and insights about how monetary policy is affecting "Main Street." The information from this survey is one input that informs the Cleveland Fed's contributions to the Beige Book and preparation for Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This District Data Brief introduces the data we produce from this survey, the Cleveland Fed Summary of Regional Conditions and Expectations (SORCE). Gathering information from the community has been central to the Cleveland Fed since its founding, and in June 2014, we began systematically quantifying this information to produce the SORCE. As shown below, the SORCE indexes have tracked more traditional sources of economic data effectively over the past 10 years. We are scheduled to start regularly releasing the SORCE in January 2025. This will provide the public with a new set of timely measures of economic activity in the Fourth District.

The Fourth District Conditions Survey

We survey business and community leaders eight times per year, timed to precede the FOMC meetings by roughly five weeks. Our survey covers the following topics: demand for goods and services, prices, employment, wages, planned capital expenditures, and near-term expectations. There are additional industry-specific questions that we ask regularly and special questions that cover timely topics. For example, in 2020, we surveyed firms about supply chain disruptions, as detailed in Dunn (2021).

We recruit survey respondents on an ongoing basis. Our respondents represent a wide variety of businesses and nonprofit organizations. The businesses range from small, single-location firms to Fortune 500 companies with a global footprint. Our survey sample has grown over time, with an average of more than 100 responses per survey round annually since 2019.