Thanksgiving is finally here

Bottom-line

No one would claim that the US election means an end to the divisive state of our politics. While we are hopeful that the Trump administration's policies will help the economy, it is heartening to know that business and consumer confidence is improving. The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index for November hit a 16-month high of 111.7, up from a two-year low of 97.8 in June. In conjunction with moderating inflation, stock prices have surged to record highs, a positive trend we expect to continue over the next year.

Checks & balances One of the best things about the US is the legislative checks and balances embedded in our democracy, which tend to keep policy smack in the middle of the fairway over time, as periodic elections serve as guardrails. We think that this will continue the time-honored trend of stocks consistently moving up and to the right, regardless of which parties control the levers of power in Washington. Voluntarily exiting the financial markets due to political considerations has been a losing strategy over time, as investors would have left copious amounts of money on the table. Strategas reports that over the past 90 years in which Republicans have controlled the presidency and both houses of Congress, the S&P 500 has averaged a solid price-only 12.9% annual return.

Keep Thanksgiving dinner civil So, as we approach this week's Thanksgiving holiday, let's table the political angst and handwringing, and instead gratefully reflect on our many blessings - such as good health -- as we share a great meal with our family and friends.

Next Tuesday is "Giving Tuesday," and Thanksgiving is a wonderful opportunity to remember those who are much less fortunate than us. Please consider participating in a food drive at your local church, temple, food bank or community center. Volunteer at a soup kitchen. Make a difference. Charity is a terrific way to celebrate the season, and philanthropy is a bright light that we can all shine.

Happy Thanksgiving, everyone!

Record travel The American Automobile Association (AAA) predicts that a record 79.9 million people will travel at least 50 miles away from their homes over the seven-day Thanksgiving holiday weekend by car, plane, train, bus, or cruise ship, up 2.2% from 2023. For the first time since AAA started tracking Thanksgiving travel in 2000, they expanded the number of days in the Thanksgiving travel period, to better capture the flow of holiday travelers. Instead of Wednesday to Sunday, this year's Thanksgiving holiday travel period is seven days, stretching from Tuesday, November 26 to Monday, December 2. They also adjusted their historical travel periods from five to seven days, to keep the year-over-year comparisons clean.

AAA predicts that a record 71.74 million people will travel by car this Thanksgiving, a 1.8% increase over last year and 1.6% above 2019's pre-pandemic previous record high of 70.58 million car travelers.

Roadways in New York City, Boston, Los Angeles, San Francisco, Seattle, and Washington, D.C. are expected to be the busiest and most congested. Due to a 24% drop in crude oil prices, gas prices have declined by 17% since April, from $3.67 per gallon to a one-year low of $3.07 now, which is a huge benefit to Thanksgiving travelers. Gas prices are down by 39% from their peak at $5.02 per gallon in June 2022.

Flying is busier than ever, too AAA estimates that a record 5.84 million people will fly over Thanksgiving this year, up 1.9% from last year's previous record of 5.73 million and 10.6% above pre-pandemic travel volume of 5.28 million in 2019. The average price for a domestic flight over Thanksgiving weekend is up about 3% from a year ago, with a comparable number of bookings.

But international bookings have surged by 23% compared to last Thanksgiving, in part because the cost to fly internationally is down by 5%. The value of the US dollar versus the euro has strengthened by more than 7% since late September, from 1.12 to 1.04. Also, soaring consumer confidence and a surging wealth effect is fueling increased demand among higher-end consumers, in the wake of positive election results.

Taking to the high seas Another record 2.28 million travelers are leaving town by bus, rail, or cruise ship this year, a 9.1% increase over the previous record of 2.09 million in 2023 and a surge of 18.8% above a pre-pandemic 1.92 million in 2019. The popularity of cruising is red hot, and domestic and international cruise bookings are up 20% compared to last Thanksgiving.

Thanksgiving dinner will be more affordable for the second consecutive year The American Farm Bureau Federation reports in its 39th annual survey that Thanksgiving dinner for 10 people at $58.08 will be 5% less expensive this year compared with $61.17 in 2023 and 10% lower than 2022's record $64.05. But this year's price with all the fixings will still be 19% higher than pre-pandemic costs in 2019. Since 1986, volunteer shoppers from all 50 states and Puerto Rico visit their local grocery stores to price turkey, cubed stuffing, sweet potatoes, dinner rolls, frozen peas, fresh cranberries, celery, carrots, pumpkin pie mix and crusts, whipping cream and whole milk.

Let's talk turkey A 16-pound turkey (at $1.60 per pound) accounts for 44% of the total cost of this 10-person feast, and turkey prices fell by 6% this year. According to the Dept. of Agriculture, farmers raised 205 million turkeys in 2024, down 6% from last year and the lowest level since 1985, due to the Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza, which has killed some 14 million turkeys since 2022. Ordinarily, a decrease would result in an increase in price. But per capita demand for turkey at 13.9 pounds this year has declined by a pound (6.7%) from 2023, accounting for the drop in price.

What about the trimmings? Cranberry prices soared by nearly 12%, dinner rolls and cubed stuffing rose by more than 8%, and whipping cream increased by nearly 5%. The other seven items all declined in price, led by a 26% drop in sweet potatoes and 14% lower milk prices.

Don't forget the wine Pairing wines for your delicious Thanksgiving dinner can be a bit of a challenge, with so many different foods. The rule of thumb is to purchase at least one bottle for each two dinner guests, and a good Thanksgiving host will offer a variety of wines to satisfy everyone's tastes. There are many good wines reasonably priced below $20 per bottle, and there are no wrong answers, it's all a matter of taste. So, start with the bubbles (champagne or prosecco), followed by the white wines, which could include chardonnay, sauvignon blanc, pinot grigio or riesling. Lighter reds such as pinot noir, zinfandel and syrah will also pair beautifully. Finally, more full-bodied red-wine lovers will enjoy cabernet sauvignon or bordeaux with their turkey. Enjoy!

Connect with Phil on LinkedIn