A prisoner exchange of historic dimensions

By Michael R. Malone[email protected]08-02-2024

Evan Gershkovich, a 32-year-old Wall Street Journal reporter working as a correspondent in Moscow in March 2023 and detained in a Russian jail on charges of espionage, is back in the United States. As is Paul Whelan, a 54-year-old Marine who became a corporate security executive and was detained in Russia since 2018.

The two were among the 16 prisoners sought by the West who had been jailed in Russia and were released late last week as part of a massive multicountry prisoner swap. Eight Russians held in the United States, Germany, Poland, Slovenia, and Norway were released in the high-stakes exchange.

Marcia Beck, a political scientist in the University of Miami College of Arts and Sciences and specialist in Soviet and post-Soviet Russian politics and foreign policy, scrutinized the prisoner swap.

Beck was in Germany as the deal transpired and highlighted concerns in the German media that for the first time in the country's post-Nazi period a convicted Russian Federal Security Service (FSB, successor to the KGB) contract killer who had been lawfully tried and sentenced in a German court of law was set free.

"Given Germany's Nazi past, abiding by these standards is absolutely paramount in the German legal system and in society at large," Beck said.

Who are the prisoners that were released, and why are they so high-profile?

The West gets 16 people back in total; Russia gets eight. The United States' most important concern is Evan Gershkovich (the first American journalist accused of being a spy in Russia since the Cold War) and Paul Whelan (among the longest held and highest-profile Americans held in Russian jails).

Germany gets five prisoners back, four from Russia and also Rico Krieger, a German citizen sentenced to death in Belarus for alleged terrorism and mercenary activities.

Russia's big fish is (FSB agent) Vadim Krasikov, and the biggest human rights activist news is that Russia is releasing Vladimir Kara-Murza, an outspoken opponent of Putin and as well-known and active as opposition leader Alexei Navalny, who died suspiciously in a Russian prison under horrible circumstances. It's very sad that this exchange came too late to free Navalny. And we shouldn't forget that there are still Americans jailed in Russia who are not part of the exchange.

Why is the Kremlin so especially interested in Krasikov?

(President Vladimir) Putin steadfastly refused to engage in any exchanges unless Vadim Krasikov was part of the deal. Known as the Russian "Tiergartenmörder," or "zoo murderer," Krasikov has been held in a German jail for murdering a Chechen militant in broad daylight in Berlin (near the zoo). The Germans finally agreed to his release after holding out for such a long time.

Putin has publicly referred to Krasikov as a "true patriot" for "eliminating a bandit"-meaning the Chechen militant. Here's the backstory: Putin was the first international leader to call George W. Bush after the 9/11 attacks to express sympathy. In return, he expected he would get the same sympathy for Russia's war in Chechnya and for terrorist attacks in the 2000s in Russia-using the common denominator of fighting Islamic radical militants. He was furious when this didn't happen, especially given the West's focus on Russian rights abuses in Chechnya and domestically. Also, domestic terror attacks in Russia did not change the West's emphasis on human rights in Russia. This was a turning point in his relations with the West. From this point on, he gave up on working in communion with the West and increasingly saw Western countries as competitors or hostile to Russia.

By getting Krasikov back, Putin feels vindicated that he has "won one" over the West in legitimating, from his point of view, Russia's fight against Chechen extremists and getting payback for the West's lack of support during his first years in office.

What motivated the two major nations-the United States and Russia-to agree to such an exchange?

Putin agrees to exchange prisoners-release or reduce the sentences of those prisoned in Russia-for purely political domestic reasons. For example, right before the Sochi Olympics in 2014, he released a number of opposition activists because he wanted all the focus to be on Russia's success in hosting the Olympic Games.

In this latest prisoner exchange, he most likely wants to create better international orientations toward Russia if there were soon to be negotiations about ending the war in Ukraine. He might think that he'll get a better deal if international actors are more positively predisposed toward him. Given the very high-profile of both the Westerners and the Russians who are part of this exchange, that makes sense as his rationale.

The U.S. engages in these exchanges for both human rights and political reasons. The human rights foundation is clear-it's one of the founding principles of the U.S. government that transcends politics. But the U.S. also has political considerations in mind. In this case, it might be motivated to push for this big international meeting and exchange to give the Biden presidency a high point on which to end his term in office. Whether this is true or not doesn't undermine the human rights motivations behind U.S. actions, but it is important to see the political motivations on both sides of the table.

What are the implications for Russia-U.S. relations? What signal, if any, does this send?

We of course celebrate the release of the U.S. prisoners and Russian human rights activists imprisoned under dubious charges. The danger in this exchange, however, is that Russia now knows that it can get its people-including convicted murderers-out of foreign jails by blackmailing them by way of taking Western prisoners such as Gershkovich. This might encourage Putin, especially if he gets a good deal in any Ukrainian negotiations, to do this again the next time there is any altercation with the West.

Why does the release come now?

This has been a monthslong full court press on the part of several international actors, with Western governments using contacts throughout the world to convince countries to release Russian prisoners in order to get the Russians on board. The U.S. probably put even more pressure on Germany during recent international gatherings, and there has been one very high-profile case in Germany recently that likely tipped the balance. A German medical aide (Rico Krieger) working in Ukraine (itself an offense to Russia and its ally Belarus) has been imprisoned and sentenced to execution in Belarus for allegedly killing a Russian. This has been all over the news in Germany for the last couple of weeks.

Any implications for the war in Ukraine?

On the same day the exchange transpired, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said he would be open to sitting down at the negotiation table with Russia about ending the war, but only if "any territorial concessions are endorsed by the Ukrainian people."

That's a big change from his former position, so Putin might see this as an opening to end his war, which he fully realizes is turning out to be a disaster for Russia and could eventually cause him political problems. This opening could be a big motivation on Putin's side for taking part in this important political exchange.