Hoover Institution
10/01/2024 | Press release | Distributed by Public on 10/01/2024 05:51
Once More Unto the Breach: Is America Polarized
Political commentators assert that American politics has become highly polarized: most people fall on the extremes and the middle has vanished. A close examination of public opinion data, however, uncovers little or no evidence of such claims. But the data show that Republicans have become more conservative and Democrats more liberal. These changes balance, leaving the overall voter distribution unchanged but the moderate middle without a home in either party.
Takeaways
- A common assertion is that American politics has become highly polarized, with most people on the political extremes and few remaining in the center.
- The data show no evidence for such assertions. Whether one examines voters' ideology, issue positions, or party affiliations, the general finding is one of little change over the past half century. But one significant change-declining party identification-points in the direction of less polarization.
- The explanation for this puzzle is that the parties sorted: Democrats became more homogeneously liberal and Republicans more homogeneously conservative, leaving the aggregate voter distribution largely unchanged but greatly increasing party conflict.
About the Author
Morris Fiorina is a professor of political science at Stanford University and a senior fellow of the Hoover Institution. He has written or edited fourteen books, most recently Who Governs? Emergency Powers in the Time of COVID. An elected member of the National Academy of Sciences, Fiorina has received career achievement awards from two sections of the American Political Science Association.
An Era of Unstable Majorities Continues
A continuation of the Hoover Institution's Unstable Majorities series from the 2016 election season, the first half of this essay series leads up to the November 2024 elections with general discussions of the past and present political situation, of particular interest to students and professionals in the fields of political science and political journalism. The second half continues post-election with analyses focused specifically on the 2024 elections, addressed to a wider audience. The series begins by looking back at the issues raised in 2016 that continue today.
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