Trump Maintains Strong Support in Wyoming, UW Survey Shows

Former President Donald Trump appears poised to again secure a major proportion of the Wyoming vote, with only 2 percent of the population reporting that they are undecided in a survey conducted by the University of Wyoming over the past month.

"Wyoming's political landscape remains staunchly Republican, with a strong show of support for Donald Trump," says Ryan Williamson, an assistant professor in UW's School of Politics, Public Affairs and International Studies. "Our results indicate that almost 66 percent of Wyomingites plan to cast their ballots for Trump, reinforcing his continued popularity in the state."

The statewide survey was conducted Sept. 24-Oct. 27, yielding 739 responses from randomly selected Wyoming residents. The margin of error for the distribution of responses on any individual survey question is plus or minus 3.6 percentage points. Men and women from all age groups and all counties in Wyoming are proportionally represented in the survey data. The final survey data have been weighted to reflect the actual population distribution in Wyoming on gender, age, county of residence, party affiliation and education.

In previous election cycles, Trump garnered significant support in Wyoming, securing 68 percent of the vote in 2016 and about 70 percent in 2020. This long-standing trend of Republican preference is expected to continue in the upcoming election.

Among self-identified Republicans in Wyoming, an overwhelming 91 percent remain steadfast in their support for Trump. Meanwhile, 5 percent have indicated their intention to vote for the Democratic candidate, Vice President Kamala Harris, with the remaining 4 percent opting for alternative candidates outside of the major parties.

Conversely, self-identified Democrats show near-unanimous support for Harris, with 98 percent backing her candidacy. Only 1 percent of Democrats surveyed plan to cast their vote for Trump, and an additional 1 percent favor other candidates.

Wyoming's independents present a more divided picture: 41 percent plan to vote for Trump, while 47 percent intend to support Harris, and 12 percent are leaning toward candidates outside of the traditional party lines.

"Our polling reveals that, despite strong partisan divides, independents in Wyoming have more varied electoral preferences," Williamson says.

Vote Count Confidence

Meanwhile, more than 58 percent of Wyomingites believe that vote counts across the country will be very or somewhat reliable, according to the survey.

Confidence levels are even higher within the state, where 88 percent of residents trust that the vote count in Wyoming will be reliable. Matching this sentiment, 89 percent of respondents express similar confidence in the reliability of vote counts within their own counties.

"These findings highlight a community that values and trusts its democratic processes, with high confidence reported at both state and county levels," Williamson says.

The survey reveals diverse opinions among Wyoming residents regarding voting by mail, reflecting preferences for both traditional and alternative voting methods.

The survey indicates that less than 1 percent of Wyomingites favor conducting elections entirely by mail. Meanwhile, 38 percent believe that citizens who wish to vote by mail should have the option to do so, highlighting an openness to flexible voting solutions.

Additionally, 45 percent of respondents support mail-in voting specifically for individuals with special needs that prevent them from voting in person, showcasing a desire to accommodate those requiring assistance.

Conversely, 16 percent of those surveyed advocate for maintaining all voting as an in-person activity, underscoring a significant preference for traditional voting practices.

"These findings highlight a balanced approach in Wyoming towards voting methods, with consideration for both traditional and accessible voting solutions," Williamson says.

Concerns Over Political Violence

The survey reveals that a majority of Wyoming residents consider political violence a pressing issue, with 55 percent identifying it as a major problem. In contrast, 44 percent view it as a minor issue or not an issue at all.

The results further highlight that 78 percent of Wyomingites believe political violence is never acceptable. However, 22 percent of respondents consider political violence justifiable under certain circumstances, consistent with a growing pattern of such attitudes across the United States.

"As political tensions intensify, Wyomingites largely advocate for nonviolence," Williamson says.

Varied Opinions on U.S. Involvement in Ukraine

The survey reveals diverse opinions among Wyoming residents regarding the extent of U.S. involvement in the Ukraine conflict.

"Nearly half of those surveyed advocate for comprehensive aid to Ukraine, paired with a cautious approach to avoid escalation," Williamson says.

The survey indicates that 11 percent of respondents believe the United States should do whatever it takes to assist Ukraine, even at the risk of entering a direct war with Russia. This perspective underscores a commitment to supporting Ukraine despite potential escalations.

Meanwhile, 44 percent support providing comprehensive aid to Ukraine but emphasize caution to avoid risking a direct conflict with Russia. This view suggests a balanced approach that prioritizes strategic support without escalating tensions.

Conversely, 44 percent of Wyomingites believe the United States should not be involved in the conflict between Ukraine and Russia at all, highlighting a significant portion of the population favoring non-involvement and focusing on domestic issues.

Biennial surveys of Wyoming residents are conducted by UW's School of Politics, Public Affairs and International Studies in partnership with the Wyoming Survey and Analysis Center. The questions focus on attitudes toward government, elected officials, candidates for office and contemporary policy issues. Questions regarding the survey can be directed to [email protected].

A top-line report with methodological outline and complete survey results can be found at https://wysac.uwyo.edu/wysac/projects/weys24/.

A random sample of all cellular and landline telephones was generated for the UW survey. Selected respondents were contacted via email, mail and phone to complete the survey, with 59 percent of responses on the web and the remaining 41 percent via live-interviewer telephone (92 percent cellular).

"This approach to the survey methodology gives every person in Wyoming with a phone an equal probability of selection for the survey," says Brian Harnisch, director of the Wyoming Survey and Analysis Center. "Survey respondents accurately reflect the statewide population in terms of general demographic characteristics that include age, gender and county of residence, as well as other benchmarks such as party affiliation and educational attainment."

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