• FocusAsia
  by Michele Danesi, Paola Morselli and Filippo Fasulo and Guido Alberto Casanova

As the United States prepares to chart its course in the upcoming election amid growing political polarization, the Global South appears increasingly united and resolute in challenging the existing world order. The 26^th BRICS Summit in Kazan, Russia, was an important event for Moscow, which claimed it was the largest international conference the country has ever organized. In addition to founding members and new entrants, other countries interested in the group's work convened at the summit bringing the total of 36 participants. However, the purpose of attending the conference in Russia was not solely to express support for Moscow. More importantly, the widespread participation in the summit was a sign of a growing consensus among Global South countries vying to reform the international order. Could the Kazan Summit mark a turning point? Russia and China are hopeful, but the road ahead remains long.

Why it matters

1. Putin is far from isolated. The summit has demonstrated that Putin is not alone, but rather enjoys broad support across the non-Western world. This outcome was not obvious, considering the circumstances following the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the US attempts to confine Moscow (and Beijing) to the realm of autocracies. The Summit has also revealed that many countries are ready to join Moscow's challenge to the global order.
2. The consensus-building momentum continues. Since 2022, after years of stagnation following South Africa's 2010 entry, the BRICS countries have started a process of gradual and rapid expansion. Following the opening of the group to new members at the 2022 virtual Summit in Beijing, six invitations were formalized at the 2023 Johannesburg Summit. This resulted in four new BRICS members (Argentina withdrew, and Saudi Arabia has yet to ratify). In Kazan, 13 "partner status" invitations were issued, introducing for the first time a new type of membership (still quite undefined) which nevertheless could open the doors to further new entries in the future.
3. Asia is finally in. A significant absence in the BRICS expansion atJohannesburg was East Asia. Although Indonesia attended theSummit, President Jokowi ultimately withheld the adhesion bid and even started discussing accession to the OECD - considered more aligned with the West. However, the introduction of the new 'partner status' in Kazan marked a shift, now including Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand - all significant investment destinations for Western companies However, the introduction of the new 'partner status' in Kazan marked a shift, now including Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand- all significant investment destinations for Western companies engaging in "friendshoring" away from China, and also participants in the U.S.-initiated IPEF agreement. It is not hard to read this choice as a victory for Beijing.
4. China and India can find common ground. The solid Asian presence in the latest BRICS expansion strengthens India's role as an alternative point of reference for Asian countries, balancing China. Leading up to the Summit, the two countries agreed to joint patrolling along the contested Himalayan border. Such a decision is certainly not a definitive solution for the dispute, but it demonstrates that India and China can find a compromise when they have a common goal to promote, such as the success of the BRICS Summit.
5. Distinction in declarations, lacking in implementation. The Summit was undoubtedly a success when it comes to the optics of accommodating the rise of the Global South through an already established institution like the BRICS. However, we are still far from achieving any real impact in terms of policies. The most evident example is the discussion on de-dollarization, a goal still far from being realized but well-publicized by the facsimile of a BRICS banknote shown by Putin. Similarly, there were discussions on the war in Ukraine- on the soil of the main actor involved-without reaching any practical results.

Our take

The BRICS Summit in Kazan marked an important moment: it demonstrated both the support that Russia and China have rallied despite Western attempt at isolation, as well as the growing interest of the Global South to push for a reform of the international order. However, we are in a preliminary stage and the Global South is still working on the creation of the critical mass needed to achieve this aim. It may take many more years before an effective proposal will emerge from this group. The most likely outcomes in 2025 will be a further BRICS expansion and a few statements on de-dollarization and peace, without an actual impact on the situation.

EXPERTS' VIEWS

What are the main takeaways from the BRICS Summit?

"The very long Kazan Declaration addressed a wide range of topics, including geopolitics and advancements in artificial intelligence. But we didn't observe an advancement in the Forum doctrine or in a unified approach in implementing the various global issues. On the economic side, the summit focused on how developing nations should play a significant role in global governance. But the only thing BRICS governments agreed on is that the issue of the common BRICS currency requires further investigation, and therefore, any progress in that direction will have to be awaited in the years to come. On the political side the meeting was notable as it occurred only a few days after India and China reached an agreement indicating a mutual desire to stabilize relations. This breakthrough was welcomed by the forum. Security discussions included regional stability, with emphasis on the prevalence of "dialogue and diplomacy" over conflict. However, to see the BRICS as a platform that can help shape the new world order will take time. The Summit was a moment of assimilation of the previous enlargement. There's some sort of a categorisation that is emerging within the grouping. The founding members enjoy a special position.It's a kind of graduated scale which will undoubtedly pose additional difficulties in the governance of the Forum."

Larabi Jaidi, Policy Center for the New South (PCNS)

What is the Indian view of this Summit?

"At the recent BRICS Summit in Kazan, India reaffirmed its vision for a balanced multipolar world and a reformed global order, advocating for a diplomatic conflict resolution. India emphasised its commitment to cooperation in economic partnerships, conflict resolution, and counter-terrorism. Discussions with Russia focused on the Ukraine crisis, with Prime Minister Modi promoting diplomacy and offering support for the repatriation of Indian nationals. In the India-Iran talks, the first since President Masoud Pezeshkian's election, regional stability and trade via the Chabahar Port were prioritised. Modi's meeting with President Xi Jinping also marked a thaw in India-China relations, with both nations agreeing to resume border patrols in Ladakh. The summit addressed critical global issues, advocating for diplomatic solutions, climate action, and unified anti-terrorism efforts, stressing the need for collective, unbiased approaches. Economic cooperation advanced through the Kazan Declaration, introducing an investment platform and expanding membership, reinforcing BRICS' support for financial reform and the Global South."

Soumya Bhowmick,Observer Research Foundation (ORF)

SPOTLIGHT: Troubled times ahead for Japan, as the government loses its parliamentary majority

The ruling LDP is in trouble and so is the government led by Shigeru Ishiba that took office barely a month ago. The outcome of the general election held on the 27^th October has been quite dismal for the ruling coalition: the LDP gained merely 191 seats while its Komeito ally could not get over 24. With just 215 MPs combined, the coalition falls short of the 233 seats threshold necessary for the parliamentary majority. This result is a severe judgement against the LDP and the incumbent administration, which prior to the vote had 247 and 279 seats respectively. Voters have decided to punish the government for its failure to stop the growth of consumer prices. Moreover, the slush funds scandal that has engulfed the LDP for almost a year has weighted heavily on its public image and, thus, also on its electoral performance. Yet, the issue that pushed most voters against the current government was the cost-of-living crisis, which many thought the government had not done enough to contain. With consumer price inflation ranging consistently over 2% every month since April 2022, even the record wage increases registered this year has not made the Japanese citizen feel more economically secure. Nevertheless, as the LDP remains the first political party in Japan, Ishiba intends to remain in his position and that is certain to open two battlefronts: the first is the difficult outreach to a disunited opposition in pursuit of external political forces that could support the ruling coalition, and the second battleground concerns the LDP internal rivalries that are now expected to pressure the weakened leader.

WHAT AND WHERE

Chinese military exercises set the stage for a new confrontation cycle

Once again, Taiwan has been at the centre of tensions in East Asia. In the early hours of the 14^th October, China announced the immediate launch of military exercises around the island to simulate a naval blockade of Taiwan: a record number of 153 Chinese airplanes manoeuvred around its aerial space and 14 navy ships, accompanied by a similar number of coast guard vessels, sailed across the surrounding seas. For the first time the Liaoning aircraft carrier, a key military asset of the Chinese navy, has taken part directly in these operations. Although the "Joint Sword 2024-B" was shorter than last May's exercise, the intensity of Chinese military operations is sending an equally strong message to the island (and to the Chinese public): Beijing will not tolerate further assertions of sovereignty by the Taiwanese government led by Lai Ching-te. The Taiwanese president gave a speech on the 10^th October, the National Day commemorating the uprising that established the Republic of China (the official name of Taiwan), that many saw as an olive branch extended to Beijing. But that has not been the perception in China, as Lai's overture took the premise that Taiwan and China are not subordinate to each other. It was a "poison pill wrapped in cellophane", according to Chinese observers, as it opened the door for cooperation on a state-to-state basis that Beijing cannot accept as it does not recognize Taiwan as a state. So, with more similar occasions coming up in the next few years, the stage is set for a prolonged confrontational cycle.

SCO ministerial summit: Jaishankar visits Karachi amid India-Pakistan tensions

On the 15-16th October, the ministerial meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) took place in Karachi, Pakistan. While China's PM Li Qiang was there to consolidate cooperation on the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, all eyes were on the first visit to Pakistan by an Indian foreign minister in ten years. This trip is considered a "bold move" signalling India's intention to stabilize the situation with its neighbour and leave the ball in Pakistan's court. The announcement of Delhi's foreign minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar's presence at the SCO summit was unexpected and came amid a period of rising tensions between the two capitals. After Modi's election in June, the diplomatic tones have toughened: Pakistan's PM Shehbaz Sharif was not invited to the swearing-in ceremony, and Jaishankar explicitly mocked Islamabad for having "GDP [that] can only be measured in terms of radicalization and its exports in the form of terrorism". Since Delhi revoked in 2019 the constitutional autonomy of Kashmir - the long-time disputed Indian region that is also claimed by Islamabad - and bilateral trade was frozen, the dialogue between the two neighbors was never really re-opened: in fact, the disputed territory remains a "red line" for both parties, with India refusing to touch upon the topic and Pakistan claiming any distension is impossible without discussing the matter.

North Korea is entering the fray in Ukraine

While North Korea seems to be engaged in a new round of provocations in Asia, thousands of its soldiers have been sent to Russia to take part in the war that is raging in Eastern Europe. According to Ukrainian and South Korean intelligence agencies, thousands of troops are now in Russia for training and many more are expected to join them in a military effort that could encompass up to 10-12,000 soldiers. The North Korean regime has been supportive of the Russian invasion of Ukraine since very early on in 2022. North Korea was the first country to recognize the annexation of Ukrainian territory by Russia, and has provided millions of artillery shells to Russian armed forces along with an undisclosed number of KN-23 missiles (which violates the U.N. sanction regime imposed on Pyongyang). Small North Korean units were already present on the side of Russian soldiers, presumably to support them in operating North Korean weaponry. The current level of involvement is unprecedented though. Pyongyang began a massive transportation of its troops to the Russian Far East for training, where they have been reportedly assigned local IDs and uniforms to conceal their upcoming deployment, even if Vladimir Putin appears to have acknowledged North Korean involvement in the war. After the signing of a strategic partnership in June, which is deemed tantamount to a mutual defense agreement, North Korean troops, for the moment, are being deployed in the Kursk region, which has been partly occupied by Ukraine forces since August. This development is pushing South Korea to rethink its position on the conflict, both in terms of direct arms supplies to Ukraine and in terms of coordination with NATO.

ASEAN political instability and crises might be a risk

Despite being a traditionally stable region, several ASEAN member states have recently experienced significant political turmoil, marked by frequent leadership changes and crises that have shaken institutional stability, raising concerns about the future of democracy and the balance of the region. In Thailand, tensions between conservative forces-often expression of the military and monarchical elites -and reformist opposition parties have led to mass protests and a series of short-lived governments with limited popular support. In August 2024, Paetongtarn Shinawatra was appointed Prime Minister, at the head of the same coalition (comprising both progressive and conservative forces) of the previous premier, Srettha Thavisin. Srettha has been removed from office by the conservative-leaning Constitutional Court over alleged breaches of ethical standards. In Vietnam, a sweeping anti-corruption campaign spearheaded by former Communist Party Secretary Nguyen Phu Trong resulted in frequent leadership reshuffles. Trong's death this summer left To Lam at the helm, but instability continues as the country nominated in October a new President - the fourth to cover such role in less than two years. In Indonesia, the election of Prabowo Subianto as President presents the challenge of continuing the legacy of popular former leader Joko Widodo and steering the nation towards sustained economic growth. Meanwhile, in Malaysia, government coalitions have faced fragmentation and leadership shifts, with Anwar Ibrahim now at the head, albeit in a seemingly fragile administration. This wave of instability underscores ASEAN's struggle to balance autocratic traditions with democratic aspirations, raising questions about the region's political stability and democratic development trajectory.

TREND:Nucleare in Asia (2010-2050)

Based on the latest data released by the International Energy Agency (IEA), Asia is set to cut out for itself a bigger role in the generation of nuclear energy, with China ready to overtake the US within 2035 and take the lead globally. In fact, Beijing plans to double its nuclear capacity within 10 years, aiming to account for about 40% of the world production. Southeast Asian countries have pledged to generate 24 TWh of energy in 2035, but are expected to grow their nuclear capacity at a much slower pace than their Asian counterparts, since their reliance on fossil fuels as the main energy source is likely to grow as well. Finally, while Japan aims to double its nuclear power generation by 2030 and to keep it stable afterwards, India is on a path to boost its capacity by four times by 2035 and almost seven times by 2050, becoming the second largest nuclear energy producer in the continent.

WHAT WE ARE READING

Indonesia's new Cabinet is 109 strong - POLITICO

Economist Joseph Stiglitz on the US-China trade war and the death of 'hyper-globalisation' | South China Morning Post

Vladimir Putin bets on North Korean troops to retake Kursk from Ukraine - Financial Times

Donald Trump would leave Asia with only bad options, The Economist

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