Household heating expenditures expected to remain about the same or less than last winter

In-brief analysis

October 8, 2024

Data source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Winter Fuels Outlook

As we explain in our October 2024 Winter Fuels Outlook, we expect that most U.S. households are likely to spend about the same or less on energy than they did last winter, depending on a household's main space heating fuel and the region where they live. We expect that lower prices this winter will be offset by colder temperatures, resulting in relatively little change in expenditures.

Tomorrow, EIA Administrator Joe DeCarolis will present our Winter Fuels Outlook forecasts during a webinar, and a panel of EIA experts will answer questions from attendees. This event is open to the public, but you must register.

Because weather is a significant source of uncertainty in our forecast, the Winter Fuels Outlook includes two side cases where all U.S. regions are either 10% colder or 10% warmer than the base forecast.

The Winter Fuels Outlook explains our expectations for residential energy consumption, prices, and expenditures for the upcoming winter season as well as our analysis of market conditions for the four most common residential space heating fuels: natural gas, electricity, propane, and heating oil.

Energy consumption and expenditures depend on the size and energy efficiency of individual homes, their heating equipment and operating conditions, and weather. Differences in the housing populations (such as geographic distribution and size) across fuels complicate direct comparisons. For these reasons, readers should not assume that switching to another fuel with lower average energy expenditures-as presented in this report-would necessarily result in less spending for their household.

Winter Fuels Outlook webinar details
Date: October 9
Time: 11:00 a.m.-11:45 a.m. eastern time
Venue: Microsoft Teams
Registration: Open to the public, but registration is required

Principal contributor: Owen Comstock

Tags: forecasts/projections, residential, prices, weather, STEO (Short-Term Energy Outlook)

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