‘History doesn’t repeat itself:’ Northwestern experts on the DNC and a sprint to Election Day

It's a pivotal moment for the Democratic Party as nominees, delegates and more descend on Chicago for the 2024 Democratic National Convention (DNC).

The convention closes out a politically eventful summer that included the attempted assassination of former President Donald Trump and President Joe Biden ending his bid for reelection and endorsing Vice President Kamala Harris for the role. It also kicks off a sprint toward election day as both major parties continue to adjust to the new dynamics of the race and attempt to engage voters on key issues.

Here's what Northwestern experts are saying about the DNC and other essential topics.

Why Black women will be an important voting bloc in this election

Sally Nuamah, associate professor of political science, human development and social policy in the School of Education and Social Policy:

"General elections are often won with slight margins, for example in the 2016 election. So, the consistent and high participation of Black women is often what helps the Democrats secure close victories making their participation essential. Black women are also critical for organizing members of their own communities, including Black men and other racial groups as we see, for example, with Stacey Abrams in Georgia."

Protests and the 1968 DNC

Heather Hendershot, professor of communication studies in the School of Communication:

"When the Democratic convention was held in Chicago in the summer of 1968, Mayor Richard J. Daley allowed his police force to beat and teargas protestors, journalists, and delegates, and Americans saw it all at home on TV. In the weeks that followed, Richard Nixon's campaign hammered home the point that Americans could not expect Democrats to run the country if they could not even control their own convention, and that perception took root, helping Nixon to win in November. Similarly, if the Chicago streets boil over in violence next week, the Trump campaign will weaponize images of that violence (on Truth Social, Fox News, and elsewhere) against Democrats up and down the ballot.

"And yet, the difference in police and City Hall leadership may make a huge difference this time around; this is crucial if the city is to avoid violence and the Democratic Party is to convey itself as the anti-authoritarian alternative to Trump's GOP. Crucially, any street violence will appear not only on TV as it did in 1968 but also via social media. Crisis moments may be amplified. Even in the absence of violence, deep fakes and other sorts of deceptions are a real risk in today's fragmented, erratic, and unpredictable media ecosystem."

How the past can and can't instruct us

Kevin Boyle, William Smith Mason Professor of American History and department chair in the Weinberg College of Arts and Sciences. From WTTW News:

"History doesn't repeat itself. The past is most useful to us as a way of understanding how we got to where we are today, rather than seeing it as somehow being repeated. It's about the roots of the life we live now, and I really do think there are serious roots in the late '60s, '68, and in the Nixon years that helped to create the world we live in now."

AI and the increasing threat of political misinformation

Erik Nisbet, Owen L. Coon Endowed Professor of Policy Analysis & Communication and director of the Center for Communication & Public Policy in the School of Communication. From a DNC panel on the growing threat AI-driven disinformation with former Assistant Secretary of State Michael Posner:

"We know in battleground states, it's going to be 50/50. Whoever wins, there will be a surge of misinformation and disinformation about the election results. AI is supercharging this, making videos more emotional and provocative while lowering the barriers to entry, allowing more people to get involved in high-impact disinformation events."

Political violence in the wake of the Trump assassination attempt

Laurel Harbridge-Yong, professor of political science in the Weinberg College of Arts and Sciences and faculty fellow at the Institute for Policy Research. In the Chicago Sun-Timeswith the University of Illinois Chicago's Alexandra Filindra, Paul Teas and Andrea Manning:

"Combined with research showing that what partisan leaders say about violence matters, our research suggests that exposure to stories of political violence does not drive partisans to view violence as justified. Instead, it may reduce support for violence as people come face-to-face with the true human cost of such events. However, this may depend on how trusted partisan leaders respond and whether they actively work to promote peaceful co-existence and denounce violence. Exercising restraint is key to the preservation of democratic institutions, and during this contentious election cycle, both citizens and leaders should heed that lesson."

Trump's attacks on Harris's racial identity

Tabitha Bonilla, associate professor of human development and social policy in the School of Education and Social Policy and research assistant professor at the Institute for Policy Research. In The Hill:

"Blackness isn't just one thing, as is no identity. You can be multiple things at one time. But I think most conversations on race and ethnicity tend to fall flat and think about entire groups of people as though they were one thing, and that's just factually incorrect.

"It also leads to a lot of harm in that it leaves out people who may not fit this modal standard of what we think their racial identity should be. It limits an individual's ability to be wholly who they are and who they want to be."

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