Market Briefs | November 13, 2024

Corn
December corn saw a modest rally following the latest USDA report, which cut U.S. production by 60 million bushels to 15.143 billion, slightly below expectations. This reduction was attributed to a 0.7 bushel-per-acre decrease in projected yield, now at 183.1 bushels per acre. Ending stocks aligned with expectations at 1.938 billion bushels, with no changes made to usage despite strong demand to date. Since the report, the December contract has fluctuated, trading on both sides of unchanged. Futures have been pressured by lower wheat prices, a correction in soybeans, and some resistance selling at $4.34 from both growers and traders. December futures aim to hold above the weekly low of $4.26, keeping bulls close to monthly highs, with additional support around the 50-day moving average of $4.15.

Soybean
Following the November WASDE report, soybean prices saw a modest increase. Production was cut by 121 million bushels to 4.461 billion, nearly 100 million bushels below expectations. Usage projections were reduced by 41 million bushels, with exports lowered by 25 million and crush by 15 million. Global stocks were reported just under 132 million metric tons, also falling short of expectations. Since then, January 2025 prices have struggled to extend gains, failing to break through the 100-day moving average of $10.37 and recently closing below the 50-day moving average support at $10.23. The market now looks to the 20-day moving average at $10.01 for support, while a move back above the 50-day moving average would signal a positive shift for bulls eyeing further upside potential.

Wheat
The November WASDE wheat report was seen as neutral. U.S. ending stocks were reported at 815 million bushels, up slightly from last month's 812 million and in line with expectations. Global stocks held steady at 257.6 million metric tons, slightly above projections. The most notable foreign market development was an increase in Kazakhstan's production, which rose by two million metric tons to 18 million, though their exports were trimmed by half a million metric tons. Wheat prices have been diverging from corn and soybean prices, with the wheat market now focused on concerns over declining U.S. production due to recent significant rainfall.

Rice
Rice prices have moved to new three-year lows. The market has been trending lower since mid-September but selling accelerated at the end of October and has pushed prices to new lows. The January contract has found support at $14.28½ and is building support. There isn't a lot of upside momentum though, as there is little to inspire the market to move higher. The mid-south harvest is complete and yield reports suggest it was a good crop. Exports have been a mixed bag recently. The weekly export released on Nov. 1 set a new marketing year low of 12,700 metric tons, however, the report released Nov. 7 showed significant improvement-pegging weekly exports at 71,800 metric tons. Large stocks in India are looming over the market since the export ban has been lifted. Asian prices are under pressure as a result. A stronger dollar will make U.S. rice less competitive globally. The November WASDE report showed unchanged supplies and domestic use, but lower exports and higher ending stocks. Long-grain exports were reduced by two million cwt, while medium- and short-grain exports were raised by one million cwt, resulting in a one million cwt increase in all ending stocks. The long-grain average on farm price projection was unchanged at $14.50.

Cotton
Cotton futures continue to trend lower. The first level of support for December is 69 cents, and a close below that level would open the way to a retest of the contract low of 66.26 cents. Downtrending resistance is near 72 cents, with additional resistance near 74 cents. Harvest pressure is a factor, but the overall market outlook is not bullish. In the November WASDE, the USDA cut projected exports by 200,000 bales to 13.10 million bales, and that carried through to the bottom line, with ending stocks for 2024-25 increased by 200,000 bales to 4.3 million. The expected on-farm price was unchanged at 66 cents per pound.

Livestock and Poultry
In the November WASDE, the USDA raised the forecasts for beef, broiler, and turkey production for the remainder of 2024. Beef production was raised on higher dressed weights and cow slaughter. The pork production forecast was lowered on slower slaughter pace and lighter weights. Price forecasts for beef, pork, and poultry were all increased due to strong demand and recent prices, and those higher prices are expected to carry into 2025.

Dairy
In the November WASDE, the USDA raised its projection for milk production through the end of 2024. Lower cow inventory was more than offset by higher output per cow. The milk production estimate for 2025 was unchanged from the previous report. The all milk price forecast for 2024 was lowered to $22.75/cwt, and for 2025 was raised to $22.85/cwt.