Deterrence and Alliance Power: Why the AUKUS Submarines Matter and How They Can be Delivered

Analysis

July 29, 2024Lowy Institute
By: Ross Babbage
Related Expert: Ross Babbage

The AUKUS program to deliver eight nuclear-powered conventionally armed submarines to Australia is a large, technologically challenging, and industrially demanding venture.

Many doubts have been raised about its practicality. This report addresses each of those critiques squarely. It concludes that some concerns are warranted but others have been ill-informed or driven by outdated assumptions.

The United States, the United Kingdom, and Australia have all committed substantial resources to ensure that the submarine program succeeds. Progress in most areas is impressive. Project planning is in an advanced state, programs of industrial expansion and modernisation are well underway, personnel recruitment and training are advancing, and the AUKUS submarine design should be finalised within 18 months.

AUKUS should deliver a powerful new level of deterrence to Australia. It will force any aggressive major power considering an assault across a major water gap in the Western Pacific to re-think their plans. And many of the strategic benefits will be delivered in 2027 when up to five jointly crewed allied nuclear-powered submarines commence routine operations from Australia.

Although there will be bumps along the way, Australia's new submarines are likely to be delivered broadly as planned.

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