Propositions 36 and 4 likely to pass; Prop. 5 within margin of error, according to new poll

By Kristine Guerrero, director of public affairs, Brian Hendershot, Cal Cities Advocate managing editor

Cal Cities' advocacy will likely pay off again in the coming election. A new poll conducted by the Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) found that a majority of likely voters support both an anti-crime ballot measure and a $10 billion climate bond. A measure that would make it easier for local governments to fund affordable housing and other projects is too close to call.

The poll shows that 73% of likely voters - both Democrat and Republican - favor Proposition 36. The measure could deter repeat retail theft by reclassifying some drug and theft crimes. It could also redirect some people towards treatment rather than incarceration.

The findings come as more public officials rally in support of Prop. 36 in West Sacramento, Los Angeles, San Diego, and San Francisco.

"As local officials, we are on the frontlines of rising theft and drug addiction and need comprehensive solutions," said Quirina Orozco, a West Sacramento council member. "By holding serial offenders accountable and offering pathways to recovery, Prop. 36 will help protect West Sacramento and communities across the state."

The same poll shows that 60% of likely voters approve of Prop. 4, which could help cities respond and prepare for wildfires, floods, extreme heat, and other climate-related events.

"As California residents face worsening air quality, unreliable access to clean water, and intensifying extreme heat events, Prop. 4 will ensure our cities are prepared to support the needs of Californians today and for generations to come," said Carolyn Coleman, executive director and CEO of the League of California Cities.

Forty-eight percent of respondents said they support Prop 5. The measure would lower the voter threshold to 55% for bonds used for affordable housing, permanent supportive housing, or public infrastructure - the same used for school construction, repair, and replacement.

"We have a housing and homelessness crisis throughout the state of California that is only getting worse," Monterey Park Mayor Thomas Wong said earlier this month. "There's also an infrastructure crisis in many of our cities where critical investment and reinvestment in our local communities is needed."

The poll of over 1,000 likely voters has a margin of error of plus or minute 3.7 percentage points. The data is largely in line with previous polling conducted by PPIC and others.