Monterey’s Ups and Downs Point to a Nuanced Market

When it comes to collector car values, Monterey is not the market and the market is not Monterey. It's just one event, of many. It serves a limited subset of a huge hobby. It's a handful of live sales in a world of digital platforms and private transactions. Yet we pay a lot of attention to this series of auctions (five this year) because: (1) It's the biggest and most visible barometer for the top of the market we get all year, and (2) It's one of the largest in-person gatherings of buyers, sellers, and industry pros anywhere in the world.

The 2024 Monterey auctions have just wrapped up and the results are, well, let's just say we heard the word "disappointing" quite a bit over the past five days. The numbers, from overall sales totals to sell-through rates on top-tier cars and prices matched against Hagerty Price Guide values all show a drop from the COVID-era highs of the past few Montereys. Auctioneers had to work harder to sell cars, reserves and low estimates proved hard to meet, and even some of the week's star cars had a shrug-worthy trip across the block.

But there were conspicuous bright spots punctuating the disappointments. Over a dozen cars achieved record prices, and 89 of them sold for above their condition #1 (concours, or best-in-the-world) value in the Hagerty Price Guide. While nearly a third of vehicles sold below their condition-appropriate price guide values, half of them sold for above their price guide values. Even within segments like modern exotics, big results immediately followed ho-hum ones. Last month, we characterized the market with one word: picky. Given Monterey's mixed results, it's a word that still very much applies.

Leading up to Car Week, shakiness in the stock market made headlines, while in the fashion world brand powerhouses like LVMH, Hugo Boss, and Burberry published profit warnings and saw their shares tumble. The S&P 500 and luxury apparel prices don't have a direct effect on the car market, though, and Hagerty's official forecast for Monterey '24 ranged from a post-pandemic average of $430M in total sales all the way up to a record $488M.

In the end, though, cumulative sales through Saturday totaled $371M (down 8 percent from 2023) and the average sale price came to $459,000 (down from $478K in '23). Cars worth $1M or more, which are Monterey's bread and butter, saw a 52% sell-through rate (down from 63% in 2023). Enzo-era Ferraris, another Monterey hallmark, also clearly struggled, with only about a third of the ones worth $1M+ meeting reserve (in four of the last 10 years, that number exceeded 80%). Zooming in, though, we saw plenty of monster prices, bidding wars, and quite a few contradictions.

Sticking with Ferraris, even as the older cars struggled, the marque notched six of the top 10 sales this year. A replacement-motor Enzo sold for its #4 value. An F50 brought a record price. A stick shift 456 sold for 20% below its price guide value. A stick shift 2007 599 GTB sold for double its price guide value.

RADwood era (1980-99) and newer exotics saw some of the biggest gains of the pandemic era and many continued to do well in Monterey, but even in this segment there are some contradictions. Of the four Vectors on offer, all fell short of their presale estimates and only one sold. Porsche Carrera GTs and Mercedes-Benz McLaren SLRs were also visibly down from their COVID peaks. But Lamborghini Countaches brought strong numbers for the most part, and price records broke for both Murcielago and LM002. RUF, Porsche 930 Slantnose, and Mercedes-Benz 560SL also saw records tumble.

Things were mixed in the muscle car world as well. Mecum's 1970 Hemi Cuda Convertible fell short and stayed unsold at a $2M high bid, but their Hemi Daytona smashed the record price at $3.3M, over twice what the same car sold for two years ago. And while an estate collection of muscle cars at Bonhams' sale saw mostly mediocre numbers, the same auction saw some of the most exciting auction action all week when two bidders just wouldn't back down for an ex-Tom Petty Mustang and settled at a $224K final price. The car itself, a 1965 D-Code convertible, was unremarkable in both condition and options, and Bonhams estimated they'd only get $25K-$35K for it.

In classic British cars, too, there were surprises. Generally this segment is soft and Jaguar E-Types in particular have seen a big dropoff since late 2022, yet there were multiple strong sales for these '60s Jags in Monterey, as well a couple of MGA Twin Cams. Broad Arrow's 2010 Morgan sold for a record price, too.

In short, totals were down and the road was rougher, but there were some bright spots in some areas and arguably some buying opportunities in others. The market is a mix of caution and exuberance, with shifting tastes and resetting expectations after multiple historically strong years. In other words, it's picky.