SIFMA Economist Roundtable Survey Forecasts Two Rate Cuts in 2024 and Five-Six Total Cuts by the end of 2025

Washington, D.C., June 27, 2024 - SIFMA today unveiled the results of its biannual US Economic Survey: Mid-Year 2024.

This survey compiles the median economic forecast from the chief U.S. economists from over 20 global and regional financial institutions that make up the SIFMA Economist Roundtable. It includes expectations for key economic metrics and policy moves, including key findings such as the expectation of 2 rate cuts in 2024 and an expected real GDP growth of 1.6% this year.

"As we reach the midpoint of the year, our survey results found a generally upbeat near-term outlook for the U.S. economy," said Jay Bryson, Ph.D., Chair of the SIFMA Economist Roundtable. "Despite some challenges, such as inflation and monetary policy concerns, our findings suggest a path towards sustained growth and stability, with expectations of a 'soft landing' and gradual easing of policy in the near future."

Key Takeaways:

• Inflation & Monetary Policy: The majority of our economists expect 2 rate cuts in 2024 and 4 rate cuts in 2025. Over 50% of our economists expect 100-175 bps of cuts by 4Q25. Over 50% of survey respondents expect a rate cut in September, followed by around two-thirds in November and over 85% in December. However, around 14% of our economists expect no rate cut in 2024.
• Economic Outlook: Core PCE estimated to end 2024 at +2.8%; +0.4 pps from the last full survey in December 2023, +0.3 pps from the March 2024 flash poll. The top factor to core inflation estimates is wage growth. Averaging 4.2% in 2024, wage growth remains 1.2 pps above the three-year pre-COVID average.
• Labor Market: Real GDP growth estimated at +1.6% in 2024 and +2.0% in 2025; +0.9 pps from our last full survey in December 2023 but no change from our flash poll in March 2024. Over 80% of our economists put the probability of recession from 0% to 30%. As to factors impacting U.S. economic growth, monetary policy - unsurprisingly - came in on top. This factor also shows up near the top in both upside and downside risks to the economy.

The full report can be found here.

You can view the recorded briefing on the report here.

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The SIFMA Economic Advisory Roundtable brings together chief U.S. Economists from over 20 global and regional financial institutions. This semiannual survey compiles the median economic forecast of roundtable members, published prior to the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. We analyze economists' expectations for: GDP, unemployment, inflation, interest rates, etc. We also review expectations for policy moves at the upcoming FOMC meeting and discuss key macroeconomic topics and how these factors impact monetary policy.

SIFMA is the leading trade association for broker-dealers, investment banks and asset managers operating in the U.S. and global capital markets. On behalf of our industry's nearly 1 million employees, we advocate for legislation, regulation and business policy, affecting retail and institutional investors, equity and fixed income markets and related products and services. We serve as an industry coordinating body to promote fair and orderly markets, informed regulatory compliance, and efficient market operations and resiliency. We also provide a forum for industry policy and professional development. SIFMA, with offices in New York and Washington, D.C., is the U.S. regional member of the Global Financial Markets Association (GFMA). For more information, visit http://www.sifma.org.