Global Dynamics in a Year of Domestic Contestations and Political Shifts

• Report Africa · Asia · Europe and Global Governance · Geoeconomics · Middle East and North Africa

2024 marked the largest election year in history, with millions of people across the world going to the polls to elect their representatives and leaders. However, in the Global North, Donald Trump's decisive election victory in the United States threatens to undermine multilateral governance structures that are already under strain. In the Global South, emerging economies from the expanded BRICS group and beyond strive to speak with a single voice, and their actions continue to be shaped by national dynamics.
How will domestic shifts impact international collaboration across the globe? Will we experience new trade wars? Will efforts to tackle climate change slow down? And how to restore hope and support a newfound impetus in multilateral governance?
Seeking to answer these questions, the Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI), the Observer Research Foundation (ORF) in India and the Policy Center for the New South (PCNS) in Morocco, are delighted to announce the launch of the 2nd Annual Trends Report, involving experts from the three think tanks.

Contents

Foreword, Karim El Aynaoui (PCNS), Paolo Magri (ISPI), Samir Saran (ORF)

GLOBAL GOVERNANCE

• An Institutional Void in the Era of Global Fragmentation, Harsh V Pant (ORF) and Vivek Mishra (ORF)
• The Universal Benefi ts of Global Cooperation, Antonio Villafranca (ISPI)
• The Democracy-Autocracy Divide Versus a Global North-Global South Framework, Filippo Fasulo (ISPI)
• The Rise of the Right and a Multilateralism in Flux, Shairee Malhotra (ORF)
• Finding Solutions to the Persistent Debt Challenge of Developing Countries, Franco Bruni (ISPI)
• Global Governance in a Fragmenting World, Len Ishmael (PCNS)
• What's Next for Global Governance?, Mohammed Loulichki (PCNS)
• BRICS+: (Dis)United They Stand, Alessia Amighini (ISPI)
• The Global South and the Risk of a Regressive World, Giovanni Grevi (ISPI)
• A New World Order: Which Multipolarity?, Alessandro Colombo (ISPI)
• The West, Between Competition and Contestation, Antonio Missiroli (ISPI)

SECURITY

• The State of Security Amid New Electoral Outcomes, Kartik Bommakanti (ORF)
• Security and Geopolitics in the Sahel, Abdelhak Bassou (PCNS)
• Post-Election Changes and Shifts in Global Nuclear Security, Shravishtha Ajaykumar (ORF)
• The Sahel Conundrum: Security, Sovereignty, and Relations with the EU, Lucia Ragazzi (ISPI)

ECONOMY AND DEVELOPMENT

• Trade Resilience Amid Rising Protectionism and Trade Wars, Lucia Tajoli (ISPI)
• Global Economies in the Headwinds of Elections, Nilanjan Ghosh (ORF)
• Resisting the Temptation of Industrial Policy: Africa's Strategy in a Shifting World, Abdelaaziz Ait Ali (PCNS)
• Voters Are Out of Patience: Elections and the Global Economy in 2024, Mihir S Sharma (ORF)
• The Global State of Gender Equality: Elections and Conflicts Take a Toll, Sunaina Kumar (ORF)
• The U.S.-China Trade War: Implications for the Global South, Hinh T. Dinh (PCNS)
• Submarine Cables: A Crucial Infrastructure for Global Connectivity, Ludovica Favarotto (ISPI) and Alessandro Gili (ISPI)

ENERGY AND CLIMATE CHANGE

• Upscaling Climate Finance in Africa, Sabrine Emran (PCNS)
• Climate Action: The Limits of Democracy, Lydia Powell (ORF)
• The End of 2024: A Revolution in the Energy Arena, Massimo Lombardini (ISPI)
• Energy Transition: Are We on the Right Track? Mounia Boucetta (PCNS)
• Climate as a Political Issue: A Double-Edged Sword, Aparna Roy (ORF)
• Green Hydrogen: Uniting the Mediterranean or Fuelling Rivalry?, Rim Berahab (PCNS)
• Climate Mitigation and Critical Minerals in an Age of Geo-economic Fragmentation, Alberto Prina Cerai (ISPI)
• Rethinking Global Governance for Climate Migration, Mehdi Benomar (PCNS)

NEW TECHNOLOGIES AND DIGITAL TRANSITION

• Elections at Risk: The Perils of Online Disinformation, Anirban Sarma (ORF)
• How Artificial Intelligence Will Affect the Economy, Otaviano Canuto (PCNS)
• Securing Elections in the Digital Age, Sameer Patil (ORF)