Election insights: The path to 270

By The CHS government affairs team

Every four years, U.S. citizens engage in a months-long process to determine who will sit in the Oval Office and assume the responsibilities of executive power. You've likely taken part in this process as a voter in the general presidential election, which helps determine the popular vote, but another critical component propels a candidate to the White House: the Electoral College.

Let's dig into key components of the Electoral College system and how its tipping point - 270 votes - determines the next U.S. president and vice president.

Electoral College

Our country's founders wanted a representative government, a system to answer the question of whether Congress or citizens should choose the president. Here are the essential points:

Electoral votes

The American presidential election isn't really about nationwide popular vote tallies; the key is electoral votes. When citizens cast their ballots for president in the popular vote, they elect a slate of electors. Those electors cast the votes that decide who becomes U.S. president during a separate event shortly after the general election. Elector votes align with each state's popular vote and are distributed based on each state's representation in Congress: 435 members in the House of Representatives and 100 senators. Washington, D.C., also receives three electoral votes, bringing the total to 538. To win the presidency, a candidate needs a simple majority of electoral votes: 270.

State weight

Each state's electoral votes reflect its population. California, with 55 votes, wields significant influence, while Wyoming, with just three votes, represents the other end of the spectrum. To calculate how many electors (and electoral votes) a state has, total its number of congressional representatives plus two senators.

Swing states

A handful of states have outsized importance in determining the election due to shifting political views of their citizens. Traditionally, these states cycle back and forth between voting blue (Democratic) or red (Republican). Their unpredictable position draws intense focus for presidential candidates as they work to win electoral votes.

When a state swings from red to blue or vice versa, one or more of the following things have typically happened:

• Voter turnout: When voters are highly motivated to turn out or are dissuaded from showing up at the polls, the results can significantly swing election results.
• Population changes: States with growing or shrinking populations often see changes in voting patterns, which can be exaggerated during presidential election cycles.
• Moderate leanings: Moderate political beliefs often make for a long-standing swing state because voters are less likely to be aligned with one party. Moderate voters weigh the candidates' policies and often split the ticket across political lines.

Swing states get attention during an election year. Not only will the candidates campaign across those states, but they often send campaigners to share messages and discuss policies on their behalf. Those efforts, plus media reporting, campaign advertising, polling and third-party engagement, put battleground states at the epicenter of political chatter during an election cycle.

The following are possible swing states in the 2024 election, although the situation could change.

• Changing demographics make Arizona a battleground. Candidates vie for support from retirees in Sun City, tech-savvy professionals in Phoenix and Hispanic communities across the state.
• The power of demographic changes is obvious in Georgia, where urban centers like Atlanta, with its diverse population, play a pivotal role.
• Rust Belt cities including Detroit and Grand Rapids are key campaign stops in Michigan.
• Nevada's diverse population - ranging from the Las Vegas metro area to rural mining towns - means every vote counts.
• Candidates engage with voters in the suburbs, military communities and university towns in North Carolina.
• From Pittsburgh steel mills to Philadelphia suburbs, Pennsylvania is a microcosm of America's political landscape.
• Wisconsin is often the bellwether state, aligning with the ultimate winner in recent elections. Candidates crisscross dairy farms, manufacturing towns and college campuses.

Campaign trail

Key points in the run-up to the election can indicate strengths and weaknesses of each party's platform.

Primaries and caucuses

These early contests set the stage last fall, narrowing the field of candidates until only a chosen few remained to move on to the general election. Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina typically take the spotlight, since they are first in the nation to conduct their contests.

National conventions

Each political party conducts its own convention, where delegates gather to nominate the candidate who will represent the party in the general election. The intent is for the conventions to rally the party's base and introduce the candidates to the wider electorate. Conventions are particularly influential because the candidate who secures the political party's endorsement can tap into party resources to help fund a campaign.

Debates

Questions posed during televised debates typically reflect relevant policy issues and current events. Whether presented in a town hall format or the more traditional face-off, debates are an opportunity to showcase a candidate's policies and approaches.

Election Day

While some states allow advance voting and voting by mail, Election Day is the first day votes can be tallied. Once votes are counted and reported, the public can get an idea of who has secured the electoral votes of a state and, in turn, the presidency.

Cast your vote

On Election Day, you have a say in every level of government, from vacancies in Congress to governors and school board elections. Regardless of the number of electoral votes your state has, voting is fundamental to democracy and shaping the world around you to align with your values. Be sure to cast your ballot in November.

Find information on CHS policy priorities.

Check out the full Summer 2024 C magazine with this article and more.

Share links