Water + Weather for October 2024

Transcript

Dr. Mark Wentzel - Hydrologist, Texas Water Development Board

Hi everyone, and welcome to the Texas Water Development Board's latest Water and Weather report. I'm Dr. Mark Wentzel, a hydrologist in the Surface Water Division here at the agency. And today, we'll be taking a look at conditions for our state at the end of October.

Let's take a look at some of the big water and weather headlines. In terms of rainfall and temperature, October 2024 was the driest October since 1952 and the hottest in records back to 1895. At the end of October, 74 percent of the state was in drought, up 40 percentage points since the start of the month. At the end of the month, storage in our water supply reservoirs was less than 71 percent of capacity, three percentage points better than last year but about ten percentage points below normal for this time of year. In the next few months, drought is expected to expand to cover all but the northwest corner of the Panhandle.

Let's take a closer look at temperature and precipitation. On these maps, we're looking at both parameters relative to what is considered normal for October. From a water supply perspective, reds, oranges, and yellows mean trouble on both maps. They show areas with above-average temperature on the left and below-average precipitation on the right. The average statewide temperature in October was more than six degrees warmer than normal, making it the warmest October since at least 1895. Only the northwest corner of the Panhandle and the southern tip of Texas received anything near normal precipitation for the month, making October 2024 the driest October since 1952. Record heat and near-record dryness made a real impact on drought conditions in the state. From the first of the month to late October, drought expanded 40 percentage points, covering 74 percent near the end of the month. That's the largest extent of drought in more than a year and the largest four-week increase since November 2020.

The severe conditions in October also had an impact on our statewide surface water supplies. The dark line on this chart shows how storage in our water supply reservoirs this year compares to minimum, maximum, and median values for the day of the year from data going back to 1990. Also displayed are lighter lines that show how we did in 2023 and 2022 and a red line that shows how we did in 2011. Statewide, surface water supplies ended October at 70.6 percent of capacity, down three percentage points from the end of September. That was the worst monthly decline this year and the worst October since 1995 when we also had a three percentage point decline. That leaves us about three percentage points ahead of last year's storage but 10 percentage points lower than normal for this time of year.

What can we expect over the next few months? In early November, most of Texas has thankfully received some rain, but the outlook over the next few months is still bleak. The latest seasonal drought outlook from the National Weather Service expects all of Texas, except for the northwest corner of the Panhandle, to be in drought by the end of January 2025. That concludes our report. Until next time, I hope you all stay healthy and safe.