Why unmarried women over 50 may be a crucial voting block in the presidential race

A recent AARP poll shows that women 50 and older, regardless of marital status, lean towards presidential candidate Kamala Harris over former President Trump by 54% to 42%. Solo agers are slightly more supportive of Harris than married women (56% to 51%). Among those who support Trump, 47% of older women were married, compared to 39% of unmarried women over 50.

Women over 50 made up a quarter of the voting-age population but cast 30% of all ballots in the 2020 election. This cycle, women ages 50 and up are the largest bloc of swing voters, perhaps even more so than during midterm elections, according to the poll.

The number of women who are not married is higher than ever, according to the Social Security Administration, and many are disproportionately affected by health care costs, cost of living, lower Social Security benefits and lower, or in many cases, no retirement savings than are married women of the same age. Women tend to live longer than men, and are also more likely to end up at or near federal poverty levels.

Journalists should be speaking to this demographic as they report on key health and aging issues impacting the election, such as Medicare, Social Security, drug prices and the economy. Older voters tend to turn out in high numbers, and these issues are taking center stage in their political decisions.

Top concerns

Financial insecurity, especially among unmarried older women, is a crucial issue for this demographic and could have long-term effects on women's retirement and late-life well-being. Solo agers may prove to be a key constituency in this race, according to the poll, which found:

• Unmarried women 50 and over are more likely than married women in the same age group to struggle or be unable to afford a range of different household expenses. While most of these respondents say they can pay for what they need even if it isn't always easy, the outlier is saving for retirement.
• More unmarried women 50 and up say they struggle or can't afford to save than those who said they could easily or usually afford to put money away.
• This finding has some potentially serious long-term consequences when it comes to costs like long-term care, health care, maintaining quality of life, food, transportation, medication and more. A 2021 Census Bureau report found that most older people who lived in poverty lived alone (63%).

These charts represent poll respondents' answers to the question: "Which presidential candidate do you trust to do a better job handling each of the following issues?" Graphics by Kevin Ridder

"While most women over 50 can afford their main expenses right now, even if it isn't always easy, achieving long-term financial security is a struggle," said Nancy LeaMond, executive vice president and chief advocacy and engagement officer at AARP. This is particularly true for older women who aren't married.

"Unmarried older women are having a harder time setting money aside for emergencies and saving for retirement, which will affect their ability to make ends meet down the road. Candidates who want to earn their vote in November should address both their short- and long-term financial concerns," LeaMond said.

• Per-person spending on health care in 2020 was about 2.5 times higher for people 65 and older than for adults under 65, according to CMS.
• Chronic diseases account for most illness, disability, and death in the United States and are the leading drivers of health care costs.
• Research by the National Council on Aging finds that most adults ages 60 and older (94.9%) have at least one condition, while 78.7% have two or more.
• Women tend to live longer than men, and more often live alone later in life.
• Women bear a disproportionate burden of costs, including caregiving, which impacts their long-term retirement security.

The poll also asked, "How well would you say the U.S. economy is working for you personally?"

Married women 50 and older:

• 39% say it's working well.
• 60% say it's not working well.

Unmarried women 50 and older:

• 31% say it's working well.
• 64% say it's not working well.

But, the research also found that regardless of marital status, most solo agers have economic concerns:

Among married women:

• 37% say the economy is hurting them and their family "a lot."
• 57% say they are less financially secure than they anticipated
• 26% say they are much less financially secure than expected.

Among unmarried women:

• 46% say the economy is hurting them and their family a lot.
• 70% are less financially secure than anticipated.
• 46% are much less financially secure than expected.

Generally, unmarried women ages 50 and older trust Harris more than Trump to handle different economic issues, while married women in the same age group are split on some.

The bipartisan poll was conducted by Kristen Soltis Anderson, a partner at opinion research firm Echelon Insights and Margie Omero, a principal at the Democratic polling firm GBAO. The national survey was fielded online from Aug. 27 to Sept. 2, 2024. The final survey included interviews with 2,785 respondents, with a base sample of 2,045 voters in the likely electorate (LE) nationwide. Oversamples achieved a total (in the base sample plus oversamples) of 1,353 women LE voters ages 50-plus, including 207 Black women voters ages 50-plus and 162 Hispanic/Latina women voters age 50 and older.

Story ideas

• Use these questions and results to frame coverage of financial security, and projected health care costs when reporting on the race for the White House and down-ballot contests.
• Find out how polling compares with this 2023 Brookings report, or other research that shows how older women think about the economy, including the cost of care.
• Compare and contrast the GOP and Democratic proposals on Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security, including the drug price negotiations on high-cost prescription drugs.
• Interview solo women agers in your community to learn whether their major concerns align with the national poll.