PPIC Statewide Survey: Californians and the Environment

The statewide ballot in the November election will include the presidential race, the US Senate race, and 52 US House district races that will help to decide the party in control of a closely divided Congress. Proposition 4, a $10 billion state bond placed on the November ballot by the legislature, would fund a variety of state programs for a changing climate. How important are environmental issues for California voters in this election year?

US presidential race. This summer, the Republican Party convention in July and the Democratic Party convention in August are setting the political context for the presidential race in 2024. California likely voters say they would choose Joe Biden (D) over Donald Trump (R) by a wide margin (55% to 30%) if the November election were held today. Preferences were similar in June (55% Biden, 31% Trump) and in April (54% Biden, 31% Trump) and, for historical perspective, in May 2020. (57% Biden, 33% Trump). National polls indicate a close race. (Note: presidential preferences in the PPIC Survey were similar before and after the June 27 debate.)

Today, partisans continue to support their party's presidential candidate: 84 percent of Democrats support Biden, and 82 percent of Republicans favor Trump. Independent voters lean toward the Democratic candidate (45% Biden, 26% Trump). Biden leads Trump across age, gender, homeownership, household income, and racial/ethnic groups, and also across the state's major regions. Eleven percent of likely voters would vote for "someone else" for president, including 6 percent of Democrats, 5 percent of Republicans, and 21 percent of independents.

Seventy-eight percent of likely voters say that the presidential candidates' positions on the environment are important (42% very, 36% somewhat) in determining their vote. Majorities across partisan and demographic groups and regions of the state hold this view. Partisans are divided: 56 percent of Democrats say the candidates' environment views are very important, compared to 24 percent of Republicans and 35 percent of independents. Biden supporters (56%) are far more likely than Trump supporters (26%) to express this opinion. Before the 2020 election, 83 percent of likely voters said that the presidential candidates' positions on the environment were important (43% very, 40% somewhat) in determining their vote.