CAPIS - Capital Institutional Services Inc.

31/07/2024 | Press release | Distributed by Public on 31/07/2024 12:36

CAPIS Morning Note – 7/31/24: Stocks Rally Almost 100 Points On The S&P 500 Overnight Into FOMC. Crazy Action.

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Tuesday lower by -0.50% from Monday higher by 0.08% at 5463.54. The overnight high was hit at 5,528.75 at 4:40 a.m. EDT and the low was hit at 5434.50 at 4:05 p.m. EDT. The overnight range is 93 points. The current price is 5526.25 at 7:00 a.m. EDT higher by +53.75 points.

Executive Summary: Today the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) comes down from the mountain to update us on their current thinking. Odds favor not rate cut as that is on the table for September which will be on the 17th and 18th. Large Cap stocks, i.e. the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100, have been trading in a chaotic pattern while the Small and Mid Cap names have moved into a nice uptrend.
  • MBA Mortgage Applications fell -3.9% after dropping -2.2% last week.
  • Several economic data points this morning plus heavy earnings flow.

Earnings Out After The Close:

  • Beats: POWL +1.63, FSLR +0.54, ACGL +0.37, AXS +0.35, PCRX +0.26, LFUS +0.22, ANET +0.16, EA +0.16, QRVO +0.16, AEIS +0.14, UNM +0.14, MDLZ +0.07, BXP +0.04, VOYA+0.04, MSFT +0.01, AMD +0.01, KFRC +0.02, SBAC +0.02, CWK +0.01, ESI +0.01, EQR +0.01 of note.
  • Flat: None of note.
  • Misses: PCH -0.72, RMBS -0.11, SYM -0.08, SANM -0.03, TLRY-0.02, LSCC -0.01of note.
  • Yet to Report:

Capital Raises:

  • IPOs For The Week: ACTU AZI BLMZ FLAI NIPG PMAX ORKT PGHL OS CON LINE
  • New IPOs/SPACs launched/News:
  • IPOs Filed/Priced:
  • Secondaries Filed or Priced:
    • VLD files Form S-3.. 1,650,000 Shares of Common Stock.
  • Notes Priced:
  • Direct Offering:
  • Exchangeable Subordinate Voting Shares:
  • Selling Shareholders of note:
  • Debt/Credit Filing and Notes:
  • Mixed Shelf Offerings:
  • PIPE:
  • Convertible Offering & Notes Filed:
  • Capital Raise Summary From The TradeXchange, bringing traders and investors real time news and Squawk Box, and other sources.

Biggest Movers Up & Down After The Close:

  • Movers Up:POWL +23.5%, ACEL +17.2%, VST +13.1%, WGS +12.5% (also announces Whole Genome Sequencing product enhancements), MTCH +7.9%, PCRX +7.5%, AMD +7.4%, FRSH +5.4%, SBUX +5.3%, PRO +4.7%, CZR +4.3%, NVDA +3.9%, TFSL +3.6%, NOG +2.7%, PDS +2.6%, ANET +2.3%, FSLR +2.2%, PSN +2.1%, QUAD +2%.
  • Movers Down: FGEN -46.6%, PEPG -25.1%,ESS -24.5%, MGNX -21.70%, GRPN -17.3%, LMND -16.8%, OI -15.2%, NARI -13.6% (also CFO to retire, names new CFO), PEN -13.2%, PINS -11.6%, AX -9.1%, BXP -8.6%, DH -8.5%, VOYA -7.4%, WTTR -7.1%, ATEN -7%, TEX -6.8%, TX -6.7%, CRK -6.5%, ATRC -5.4%, FNA -5.4%, AROC -4.9%, STAG -4.4%, SNAP -4.4%, INFA -4.2%, PSA -4.1%, WU -4%, SWKS -3.9% , SYK -3.7%, LYV -3.5%, KAI -3.2%, MSFT -3.1%, FE -3%, DENN -2.6%, AWK -2.4%.

News After The Close :

  • CPA temporarily suspends flights to Venezuela.
  • NRDS committed to a restructuring plan intended to reduce operating expenses and better position the Company to execute its long-term strategic initiatives; plans to reduce workforce by 15%.
  • CACI was awarded a ten-year expertise contract valued at up to $450 mln to support the Joint Navigation Warfare Center.
  • INTC to cut thousands of jobs to reduce costs and turn the company around. (Bloomberg)

Buybacks or Repurchases: Buybacks should be slow as most companies are in a blackout period as earnings season kicks into gear.

  • UNM authorizes $1 billion share repurchase program.
  • VVV announces $400 million share repurchase authorization.

Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:

  • NARI announces that Mitch Hill, Chief Financial Officer, will retire effective October 1, 2024 and will be succeeded by Kevin Strange, Inari's current SVP, Finance, Accounting, Strategy and Business Development.
  • BFST electS David R. "Jude" Melville III to the role of board chair and Rolfe H. McCollister Jr. as lead independent director.

Dividends Announcements or News:

  • Stocks Ex Div Today: TXN MS EPD KMI TRGP WST PAGP LNT NI PAA AOS NNN ADC SLG
  • Stocks Ex Div Tomorrow: AON DHI O VLO OKE NRG WES CAG CASY ALLY AES PNW
  • CLX increases quarterly cash dividend to $1.22/share from $1.20/share.

What's Happening This Morning:Futures S&P 500 +53, NASDAQ 100 +297, Dow Jones +37, Russell 2000 +12. Asia and Europe are higher this morning.VIX Futures are at 16.25 from 15.85 yesterdaywhile Bonds are at 4.133% from 4.175% on the 10-Year. Crude Oil and Brent are higher with Natural Gas higher as well. Gold, Silver and Copper higher. The U.S. Dollar is lower versus the Euro, lower versus the Pound and lower against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $66,032 from $66,495 higher by +0.33% this morning.

Sector Action- (1/3/6/12/YTD Updated Weekly with Monday release):
  • Daily Positive Sectors: Energy, Financial, Real Estate and Utilities of note.
  • Daily Negative Sectors: Technology, Consumer Defensive, Consumer Cyclical and Materials of note.
  • One Month Winners: Real Estate, Financials, Industrials and Utilities of note.
  • Three Month Winners: Technology, Real Estate, Financials, Healthcare, Utilities and Communication Services of note.
  • Six Month Winners: Utilities, Technology, Financials and Industrials of note.
  • Twelve Month Winners: Technology, Communication Services, Financials, Industrials, Healthcare and Energy of note.
  • Year to Date Winners: Technology, Communication Services, Financials, Industrials, Utilities and Healthcare, of note.

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (From Chartroom Software - sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

  • Wednesday After the Close:
  • Thursday Before The Open:

Earnings of Note This Morning:

    • Beats: HUM +1.01, ATHM +0.61, SMG +0.39, OSK +0.33, TMUS +0.21, DD +0.12, WING +0.10, KHC +0.05, MAR +0.03, ADP +0.03, of note.
  • Flat: None of note.
  • Misses: BA -1.00, AN -0.33, BG -0.10 of note.
  • Still to Report: None of note.

Company Earnings Guidance:

  • PositiveGuidance: BXPof note.
  • NegativeGuidance: ANET PEN PSA LSTR CCCS OI PINSof note.

Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Chart: A/D lines were mixed on Tuesday.

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market(+4% or down more than -4%):

  • Gap Up: POWL +26.2%, VST +11.9%, MTCH +11%, ACEL +10.3%, AMD +9.1%, PCRX +7.5%, WGS +6.7%, PRO +6%, NVDA +5.6%, FRSH +5.4%, LC +5.3%, TAK +4.6%, ANET +4.5%, HSBC +4.5%, CZR +4.4%, UMC +4.4%, FSLR +4.1%, THRM +3.7%, CPA +3.6%, TFSL +3.6%, MESO +3.6%, DD +3.6%, FVRR +3.5%, TT +3.5%, CP +3.4%, QRVO +3.3%, TECX +2.8%, SBUX +2.7%, NOG +2.6%, PDS +2.5%, VVV +2.4%, MOD +2.2%, ATHM +2.2%, ENTG +2.2%, INTC +2%, RIO +2% of note.
  • Gap Down: FGEN -44.5%, MGNX -26.5%, ESS -24.5%, PEN -20.3%, OI -16.1%, NARI -15.6%, GRPN -15.5%, LMND -14.6%, DH -13.8%, PEPG -11.6%, PINS -11.3%, ATRC -9.1%, WTTR -7%, AROC -7%, AX -6.5%, WERN -6%, DENN -5.9%, DV -5.9%, VOYA -5.8%, ATEN -5.6%, TEX -5.6%, LSTR -5.6%, BG -5.6%, FNA -4.4%, SW -4.3%, CRK -4.2%, EDU -3.6%, TRVG -3.3%, WU -2.9%, JBT -2.7%, SNAP -2.5%, MSFT -2.5%, CCCS -2.5%, MXCT -2.4%, INCY -2.3%, HDSN -2.1%, BLKB -2.1%, IDYA -2%, SWKS -2%, GSK -2% of note.

Insider Action: ALLE sees Insider buying with dumb short selling.No names see Insider buying withsmart short sellers.

Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. "rehashed news". Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.

  • Bloomberg Lead Story: Boeing Names Kelly Ortberg as CEO. (Bloomberg)
  • 5 Things You Need To Know To Start Your Day. (CNBC)
  • What You Need To Know To Start Your Day. (Bloomberg)
  • Stocks Making The Biggest Moves Pre-Market - (CNBC)
  • Markets Wrap: Big Tech rebounds as traders get ready for Fed day. (Bloomberg)
  • The Bank of Japan hikes rates before the Fed goes. (Bloomberg)
  • Israeli strikes in Tehran and Beruit raise regional tensions. (Bloomberg)
  • Boeing (BA) reports wider than expected loss. (CNBC)
  • AMD leads a global chip rally. (CNBC)
  • Microsoft stock is lower in the pre-market, expect more volatility around this name. (Barron's)
  • Bloomberg's The Big Take: Vice President Harris wipes out Trumps lead in swing states. (Bloomberg)

Economic:

  • July ADP Employment Report is due out at 8:15 a.m. EDT and expected to rise to 160,000 from 152,000.
  • June Pending Home Sales are due out at 10:00 a.m. EDT and are expected to rise to 1.5% from -2.1%.
  • Weekly Crude Oil Inventories are due out at 10:30 a.m. EDT.
  • FOMC Rate Decision is due out at 2:00 p/m. EDT and then a presser at 2:30 p.m. EDT.

Geopolitical:

  • The President receives the Daily Briefing today at 10:00 a.m. EDT.
  • President Biden is briefed on the Inflation Reduction Act implementation at 11:00 a.m. EDT.
  • The President and Vice President have lunch at 12:45 p.m. EDT.
  • Press Briefing at 1:30 p.m. EDT with Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre.
  • President Biden is briefed on drug trafficking and fentanyl in effort to beat the opioid epidemic at 2:30. p.m. EDT.
  • President Biden meets with the U.S. Special Representative for Ukraine's Economic Recovery Penny Pritzker at 3:45 p.m. EDT.

Federal Reserve Speakers

  • Federal Reserve speakers are now in blackout mode until after the FOMC Announcement.

M&A Activity and News:

  • PSN has entered into a definitive agreement to acquire BlackSignal Technologies in an accretive deal valued at $200 mln.

Moving Averages On Major Indexes: Moves from 67% to 70% of the moving averages being positive.

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

  • Sellside Conferences:
    • KBW Community Bank Investor Conference
  • Fireside Chat: None of note.
  • Top Shareholder Meetings: BLFS, CHUY, FFIE, GNLX, MCK, RL of note.
  • Investor/Analyst Day/Calls: BNOX, CTXR, DELL, SLCA of note.
  • Update: None of note.
  • R&D Day: None of note.
  • FDA Presentation:
  • Company Event:
  • Industry Meetings or Events: Note that Former President Trump will speak on Saturday at the Bitcoin Conference throwing his support behind Bitcoin.
    • Alzheimer's Association International Conference
    • National Association of Home Builders
    • 2024 Olympics

Top Tier Sell-side Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this "Upgrade/Downgrade" section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting is to make the reader aware of market-moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

  • Upgrade: RTX WWD STLA LZ LMT GLW ECL
  • Downgrade: NEP DH AWK