2. 10. 2024

• Ministry of the Environment, Climate and Energy

The natural gas supply to Slovenia and the wider region will be stable and reliable this winter, mainly thanks to other sources from Algeria, Azerbaijan and Norway.

Europe's natural gas supply will also be sufficient and reliable, despite real risks, such as the cut-off of the supply of Russian gas through Ukraine and the resulting greater sensitivity to potential incidents affecting the supply of gas to the European Union.

In response to an inquiry by the Ministry of the Environment, Climate and Energy, suppliers in Slovenia confirmed that they were prepared for this winter and expect no major difficulties in the supply of natural gas. The operation of the Vienna-based gas trading market CEGH will be essential to the region after the cut-off of the supply through Ukraine and the dispersed supply routes. Slovenia extended a contract for the supply of natural gas from Algeria this year and signed a cooperation agreement with Azerbaijan in the summer. Minister Kumer said: "Slovenia will be well-prepared for this winter in terms of natural gas supply. We can be perfectly calm. Our supply is even more reliable than in pre-crisis times, mainly due to the diversification of the natural gas routes to Slovenia."

The European gas market and infrastructure

The EU gas market has already adapted to the risk of the cut-off of transit through Ukraine, with prices remaining stable and slightly higher than before the crisis. Most infrastructure has been expanded and has the technical capacities to transport gas to eastern regions following the cut-off of transit. Whereas price increases on the CEGH are possible, the amounts will depend on real supplies to the region and on other potential incidents this winter. Any depleted storage facilities might cause problems in the transport of gas through the EU to replenish supplies and lead to rising prices after the winter.

Gas storage facilities

Storage facilities in the EU are important for ensuring adaptability in the supply of gas during the winter, particularly after the shift from Russian gas (which enabled a relatively flexible supply). Storage facilities are very full this year (at 94% capacity), mainly due to the warm winter. In the event of a harsh winter or supply route issues in wintertime, they might be exhausted fast, which would cause problems particularly in replenishing and supplying gas for the next winter.

Supply routes

With the shift from Russian gas, countries and suppliers secured other gas sources with different characteristics and risks. Specifically, free capacity is lower than it used to be and sensitivity to an outage is greater. The current gas supplies are sufficient and will be increased, particularly in the segment of liquefied natural gas (LNG), in 2026/2027, when the supply capacities at source and LNG terminals in the EU will be expanded.

Gas consumption

The (ENTSOG and JRC) supply scenarios point to the urgency of reducing consumption by 15% to ensure reliable gas supply this and the following winter in the event of a harsher winter season. The combination of a cold winter and supply route issues would necessitate limiting supply, but not to the extent that would affect protected consumers.

Crisis level under EU regulations

Some EU countries still have an early crisis warning in place. Slovenia issued such a warning in summer 2022, but the current situation allows us to examine the possibility of cancelling it in the following months. "That would be a very strong signal indicating that Slovenia has one of the most robust and reliable natural gas supplies in the middle of winter," the Minister added.