Population and Labour Force Projections 2023-2057

Key Findings

The Population and Labour Force Projections release looks at three different potential population growth scenarios over the time period of 2023 - 2057. It is based on the 2022 Census.

• Under the three different scenarios discussed by the Expert Group the population by 2057 will reach 7.005 million, 6.446 million and 5.734 million persons respectively. The key change in each of these scenarios is the net migration per annum. Assumptions regarding fertility and mortality remain constant across the three scenarios.

• For each of the three scenarios there appears to be a change from natural increase (i.e. more births than deaths within the population) in the population to a natural decrease (i.e. more deaths than births) in the population by the 2040's. The timing of this change depends on the scenario chosen.

• The number of people aged 65 years and over is set to increase significantly over the period of these projections with the number of people in this age category set to reach over 1 million by 2030.

• The Labour Force is projected to increase under all three potential population growth scenarios. The amount of growth depends on the scenario chosen.

Statistician's Comment

The Central Statistics Office (CSO) has today (16 July 2024) released Population and Labour Force Projections 2023 - 2057. Commenting on the release, Eva Leahy, Statistician in the Life Events and Demography Division, said:

"This publication shows national population projections under various scenarios for the period 2023-2057 as well as Labour Force projections for the period 2023-2037.

The projections illustrate potential future population trends given specific potential scenarios (termed assumptions) for fertility, mortality and migration, as well as labour force participation. This release differs from previous iterations in having a total of three scenarios, based on low, medium and high migration levels.

There is an increase in population expected under all three potential scenarios. The size of the increase depends on which assumptions are being considered.

There is also an increase in the labour force expected. Again, the size of the increase depends on which assumptions are being considered.

It should be noted that while the assumptions/scenarios simply illustrate a range of possible scenarios, they are not attempts to forecast the future of population and migration patterns in Ireland.

In determining these scenario parameters, the CSO both considered the most up to date data as well as the guidance of the Population and Labour Force Expert Group. The provides guidance in the process of establishing potential scenarios. Three meetings of the Expert Group took place between February and May 2024. As always, the CSO is very grateful to the members of the Expert Group for their contributions both in terms of advice and in time."