Ismail Haniyeh’s Assassination: Escalation or an Off-Ramp

Commentary by Riley McCabe

Published August 1, 2024

Ismail Haniyeh, the head of Hamas's political wing, was killed by an explosion in his guesthouse in the Iranian capital of Tehran on July 31, 2024. Iran and Hamas blamed Israel for the killing and vowed revenge. Haniyeh's death highlights the uncertain impact of high-profile killings of suspected terrorists. On one hand, the assassination in Tehran could trigger further escalation into a regional war involving Iran and its proxies. On the other, Haniyeh's death delivers the Israeli government an important political victory that could open the door to reducing military operations in Gaza on its own terms.

Haniyeh had led Hamas's political wing since 2017, serving as the group's public face and overseeing its finances. Haniyeh was based in Qatar but was visiting Tehran for the inauguration of Iran's new president when he was killed.

The assassination of Haniyeh is just the latest in a string of Israeli efforts to hunt down members of Hamas's leadership for their involvement in the group's attack on October 7, 2023. On July 13, Israel conducted an airstrike in Gaza aimed at Mohammed Deif, the head of Hamas's military wing. The attack resulted in the deaths of at least 90 Palestinians in the surrounding area, although it is unclear if Deif was killed.

Haniyeh's death is unlikely to impact Hamas's military operations in Gaza in the immediate future. Haniyeh likely had little involvement in the day-to-day operational planning of the group's fighting, and Hamas's top leader in Gaza, Yahya Sinwar, remains at large.

However, Haniyeh's death casts the larger trajectory of the war in Gaza and rising tensions in the region into deeper uncertainty. The killing could escalate fighting between Israel and Iran and its proxies. Immediately following the assassination, Iranian supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said in a statement, "We consider it our duty to avenge his blood in this bitter and difficult incident that happened in the territory of the Islamic Republic." In April and May 2024, Israel and Iran exchanged long-range strikes in a rare instance of direct confrontation between the two states. Haniyeh's death also comes at a time of increased tensions between Israel and the Iranian-backed Lebanese Hezbollah. Just hours before the explosion in Tehran, Israel carried out another attack in Beirut, where it claimed to have killed a top Hezbollah commander involved in a rocket attack on July 28 that killed 12 children in the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights.

Since October 7, exchanges between Israel and Iran and its proxies in Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen have often been calibrated to avoid escalation. Still, there is always the risk that serious retaliation from Iran over Haniyeh's assassination could tip the region into a broader war.

Haniyeh's death also complicates peace talks over Gaza. Haniyeh was a key figure in negotiations regarding the exchange of hostages and a potential ceasefire between Israel and Hamas. In the near term, his assassination will undermine the recent progress made between the two sides. Qatari prime minister Sheikh Mohammed, who has helped lead negotiations between Israel and Hamas, wrote on social media, "How can mediation succeed when one party assassinates the negotiator on the other side? Peace needs serious partners."

However, in the long term, Haniyeh's assassination and the killing of other senior Hamas leaders could serve as a path for Israel to reduce its military operations in Gaza. In the aftermath of Hamas's attack on October 7, Israeli leadership laid out several objectives, including the destruction of Hamas. "If you want peace, destroy Hamas. If you want security, destroy Hamas. If you want a future for Israel, the Palestinians, the Middle East, destroy Hamas," Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared. As many analysts have noted and as the first 10 months of fighting have demonstrated, it is impossible for Israel to root out every Hamas fighter and untangle the group from its deeply embedded social, religious, and educational networks across Gaza. Instead, the killing of senior Hamas leaders could serve as an alternative form of success that enables Netanyahu and the Israeli government to claim victory and reduce its military operations in Gaza. The assassinations of Haniyeh and Deif make this path appear increasingly credible. As journalist Oz Katerji put it, "Israel is now just one Sinwar assassination away from being able to declare a 'victory' over Hamas in Gaza."

In this way, Israel's latest assassination appears to be a calculated risk on behalf of Netanyahu, who very likely personally approved the operation to kill Haniyeh. While it risks causing the simmering conflict between Israel and Iran and its proxies to finally boil over, it also strengthens his case to the Israeli public that victory over Hamas is within reach and, with enough other high-profile hits, could be enough to push Israel toward reducing its operations in Gaza.

Whether this strategy will succeed remains uncertain. The task of finding and killing Sinwar is difficult and, even if completed, the Israeli public may reject such a form of victory. There is also the risk that Israel's efforts to eliminate Hamas leaders backfire. Israel's assassination of Hamas founder (and Haniyeh's mentor) Sheikh Yassin in 2004 effectively removed all limits he had placed on the group's relationship with Iran, elevating the long-term threat posed by Hamas to Israel. Indeed, Hamas has repeatedly survived the assassination of its senior leaders. At this phase of the war, Israel claiming victory after the successful elimination of multiple Hamas leaders also leaves the group capable of rebuilding itself.

While Haniyeh's death is unlikely to change the situation on the ground in Gaza in any meaningful way in the near future, his death represents a pivotal moment that could plunge the region into a broader and more destructive war or crack open the door for Netanyahu to claim victory against Hamas and eye a path to reduce Israeli military operations in Gaza.

Riley McCabe is a program manager and research associate with the Warfare, Irregular Threats, and Terrorism Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington, D.C.

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