ADB Nâng Dự Báo Tăng Trưởng Kinh Tế Cho Khu Vực Châu Á Đang Phát Triển Và Thái Bình Dương

MANILA, PHILIPPINES (25 September 2024) - The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has maintained its forecast of 4.8% economic growth in the People's Republic of China (PRC) this year, according to the latest ADB report.

The growth outlook remains balanced amid a prolonged correction in the property market and weak investor and consumer confidence, according to Asian Development Outlook (ADO) September 2024, released today. Economic activity in the PRC is expected to moderate to 4.5% growth next year, consistent with ADB's projection in April.

"ADB's research indicates that investment will support domestic demand while the property market correction continues," said ADB Country Director for the PRC Safdar Parvez. "Global demand and the domestic cost advantage in manufacturing should also bolster exports."

Inflation for 2024 is now forecast at 0.5%, lower than April's 1.1% projection as the overall downtrend in food price persists. Strong global demand and increased credit availability for certain industries-including semiconductors; artificial intelligence; and low-carbon technologies such as electric vehicles, lithium-ion batteries, and renewables-will drive growth this year and next.

Infrastructure investment should regain momentum with the expected acceleration of the local government special bond issuance in the second half of this year. However, the ongoing property sector correction is expected to slow growth. The contraction in real estate investment will likely continue into next year.

Risks to the outlook include the deterioration in the property market, global fragmentation due to geopolitical issues, and the escalation of trade tensions. On the upside, acceleration and effective implementation of policy measures, including policies announced in the Third Plenum, could raise consumer and investor confidence faster than expected, resulting in higher growth and inflation than forecast.

ADB is committed to achieving a prosperous, inclusive, resilient, and sustainable Asia and the Pacific, while sustaining its efforts to eradicate extreme poverty. Established in 1966, it is owned by 68 members-49 from the region.

Countries

• China, People's Republic of

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