Grain Market Update 14th August

Market Prices and News

MATIF wheat futures held firm in the week from August 2nd to August 9th closing at €226.50/t.

Large wheat tenders from importers such as Egypt in recent weeks have supported European wheat prices according to the AHDB in the UK, but exports from the Black Sea remain the lowest price and continue to exert price pressure.

Wheat prices have slipped back this week as a result of the bearish WASDE report published by the USDA on Monday. Paris MATIF Nov-24 closed at €222.50/t on Tuesday August 13th. Chicago CBOT futures have closed below $4/bu (€140-142/t) for Dec-24.

No native, green prices have been issued in recent weeks by Irish Co-ops.

Dried grain prices reported to IFA put wheat at €225-230/t for November and dried feed barley at €215/t.

EU rapeseed prices slipped back last week; Nov-24 futures fell by €7.75/t in the week up to August 9th, closing at €464.50/t. Prices are closer to €460/t at the time of writing. The drop in prices is triggered by strong downward pressure on Chicago soybeans, which have fallen to their lowest price since September 2020 (<$10/bu or €363/t).

FOB Creil malting barley closed at €251/t, with the rolling average for Boortmalt suppliers now at €262.08/t.

Across NW Europe, proteins in spring malting barley crops are reported as low to very low with variable kph values. A similar quality pattern has emerged for the very limited area of malting barley cut in Co. Kildare and Laois to date.

Global Grain Supply and Demand

EU soft wheat production has been cut by 4.7% for 2024 to 116.5MMT the lowest since 2018, overall declines have been heavily affected by declines in France (Strategie Grains). Argus media estimates the French crop at 25.2MMT, the lowest since 1983, however, this figure is lower than official French estimates of 26.3MMT.

EU barley and maize production has also been revised downwards this month by Strategie grains. Barley is estimated to fall 1.4% and maize down by 3.2%.

Russian wheat estimates have been revised downwards by analyst Sovecon from 84.7MMT to 82.9MMT.

USDA released its World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates for August on Monday, August 12th.

US soybean production is now estimated at 124.9MMT, up 3.5% from the July estimate. Global soy production is up 9.1% annually and 15.9% on the five-year average (AHDB).

US maize production for 2024/25 is now expected at 384.7MMT, the yield estimate for maize has been estimated at 183.1bu/ac is the highest ever printed.

US wheat production was reduced downwards slightly by 1.3% on account of lower spring and durum yields.

Global wheat ending stocks were revised downwards slightly by 0.6MMT on the July WASDE report.