New evidence of worsening outlook for electric vehicle market reinforces need for urgent action

New data from S&P Global reveals a worsening outlook for the EU battery-electric vehicle (BEV) market amid shifting economic conditions. Between the first and second halves of 2024 market expectations significantly evolved, prompting a reassessment of EU trends.

S&P Global data reveals a substantial downward revision in BEV market share forecasts for 2025, from 27% in the first half of the year to 21% today. This recalibration signals a major compliance setback for the EU's 2025 CO2 emission targets, linked directly to the reduced BEV market penetration, stoking concern across EU capitals.

Martin Kupka, Czech Transport Minister: "Without a targeted automotive industrial action plan, we risk falling behind the US and China. The reality check shows that the EU needs to have a more flexible system in place for auto manufacturers to reach the ambitious CO2 reduction targets. We should ensure the industry uses profits to invest into new solutions instead of paying penalties."

A stagnating market significantly increases compliance costs for manufacturers, as the data from S&P Global confirms. For example, to meet emissions targets, they may need to pool credits with Chinese and US manufacturers, directing payments to non-EU manufacturers at the expense of European industry.

Sigrid de Vries, ACEA Director General: "The looming crisis necessitates urgent action. All indicators point to a stagnating EU electric vehicle market, at a time when acceleration is needed. Apart from the disproportionate compliance costs for EU manufacturers in 2025, the success of the entire road transport decarbonisation policy is at risk.We appreciate that several European Commissioners have emphasised regulatory predictability and stability in their confirmation hearings, but stability can't be a goal in itself. Manufacturers have invested heavily and will continue doing so. Europe must stay on course of the green transformation by adopting a strategy that works."

The European Automobile Manufacturers' Association (ACEA) has consistently urged EU policymakers to address the steep compliance costs associated with the 2025 targets, caused to a large extent by factors outside manufacturers' control, such as a lack of widespread charging infrastructure and EV market stimulus. A robust, comprehensive and immediate review of the current approach is essential, given that the current trajectory diverges sharply from earlier projections. In light of recent economic and geopolitical challenges, ACEA calls for urgent cost relief in 2025 and an expedited review of the CO2 standards for both light- and heavy-duty vehicles to safeguard EU industry competitiveness.

Notes for editors

• S&P Global revealed its findings at the event 'Decline of EU EV market: myth or real crisis? You can view the event recording here
• Year-to-date BEV volumes in the EU have dropped by 5.8% with the total market share falling to 13.1% from 14%
• Year-to-date BEV volumes in Germany have fallen by a significant 27%

About ACEA

• The European Automobile Manufacturers' Association (ACEA) represents the 15 major Europe-based car, van, truck and bus makers: BMW Group, DAF Trucks, Daimler Truck, Ferrari, Ford of Europe, Honda Motor Europe, Hyundai Motor Europe, Iveco Group, JLR, Mercedes-Benz, Nissan, Renault Group, Toyota Motor Europe, Volkswagen Group, and Volvo Group
• Visit www.acea.auto for more information about ACEA, and follow us on http://www.twitter.com/ACEA_auto or http://www.linkedin.com/company/ACEA/

Contact:

• Ben Kennard, Senior Communications Manager, [email protected], +32 485 88 66 44

About the EU automobile industry

• 12.9 million Europeans work in the automotive sector
• 8.3% of all manufacturing jobs in the EU
• €392.2 billion in tax revenue for European governments
• €101.9 billion trade surplus for the European Union
• Over 7% of EU GDP generated by the auto industry
• €59.1 billion in R&D spending annually, 31% of EU total