What We Learned at the 2024 Monterey Auctions

The Monterey Car Week 2024 is now in the books. While the Sunday concours in Pebble Beach is all about elegance, the auctions are best described with numbers. In four days, more than 1100 vehicles were offered, and 73 percent of them sold. Of those offered, 163 were potentially worth $1M or more. Total sales for the five auctions was just under $392M. Despite all those big numbers, fewer lots were offered this year, total sales were down by three percent, and the average price fell, too. Why?

Starting with those 163 examples of $1M-plus cars offered, the market appears to have a growing preference for more modern vehicles. When "modern" is defined as anything built since 1981, it leaves nearly 100 years of vintage vehicles and just over 40 years of modern. The amount of cars-140 vintage and 23 modern-could reflect the broader time period considered for vintage cars, or that imbalance could merely reflect an oversupply of vintage $1M-plus vehicles. Since 2021 in Monterey, modern vehicles in that seven-figure range have achieved a higher sell-through rate than vintage vehicles, partly due to being offered in smaller numbers.

It could also be that the appeal of vintage seven-figure cars like 1930s coachbuilt French cars is diminishing. Both the 1937 Bugatti Type 57 Atalante at Gooding (low est. $9M) and the 1938 Talbot-Lago T10C Teardrop Coupe at Broad Arrow (low est. $6.5M) were no sales. Conversely, both auction companies sold modern track-only sports racing cars, with Gooding selling a 1995 Ferrari 333 SP Evoluzione for $5,120,000 and Broad Arrow selling a 1997 Porsche 911 GT1 for $7,045,000.

Of course, seven-figure Ferraris and Monterey auctions go very well together, too. In the past 36 years, the top auction sale of the entire year occurred in Monterey 19 times, and 11 of those times, the car was a Ferrari. This year, six of the top 10 were Ferraris. However, like the broader $1M-plus market, there's a split between vintage Enzo-era Ferraris (pre-1974) and modern Ferraris. Vintage cars are more numerous at this price level, and the sell-through rate has been falling, while modern cars are relatively rarer and have been selling better. While changing tastes could account for that difference, supply differences could also affect the sell-through rate.

The live auctions are also a good place for us to see the condition of a car in person. Rating the vehicles consigned using our 1-4 system, we can then compare the final price to the condition-appropriate Hagerty Price Guide value. The median final price premium relative to condition-appropriate Hagerty Price Guide value was 10 percent this year, up slightly from 8.6 percent last year. The stable premium indicates that bidders know what they're looking at and are not in a rush. Similarly, the share of vehicles sold below their low estimate in 2024 was 49.7 percent, which is up only slightly from 48.5 percent last year. With the share sold below the low estimate nearly unchanged, it also suggests sellers aren't in a rush to sell.

Without any more major auction events in North America on the calendar this year, the car market can take some time to work through those unsold seven-figure cars. Given that it appears neither buyers nor sellers appear to be in a rush to transact, it could be a quiet couple of months.

For our live blog of the Monterey auctions, go here.