Are We on the Brink of All-Out War in the Middle East

• MEDMed this WeekMiddle East and North Africa

The MED This Week newsletter provides informed insights on the most significant developments in the MENA region, bringing together unique opinions and reliable foresight on future scenarios. Today, we shed light on the assassinations of Ismail Haniyeh and Fuad Shukr, and the risk of broadening of the conflict.

Hezbollah's top military commander, Fuad Shukr, and the chairman of Hamas' Political Bureau, Ismail Haniyeh, were killed within hours of each other on the night between 30 and 31 July. Israel claimed responsibility for the attack in Beirut, stating it was in response to the tragic event of 27 July, when 12 children were killed in the Druze town of Majdal Shams in the Golan Heights. The assassination of Ismail Haniyeh, however, came as a surprise and without any Israeli authority taking responsibility for it. The political leader of Hamas, who was living in exile in Doha, was in Tehran to attend the swearing-in ceremony of Iran's new president, Masoud Pezeshkian, when he was killed. Known as one of the most moderate voices within the Islamic group, his death further jeopardises the already slim hopes of a successful ceasefire negotiation in Gaza. These two killings risk widening the conflict to the entire region. The responses from Hezbollah, Hamas, and especially Iran-which has suffered a major setback to its ability to defend its own soil-will determine whether the conflict will escalate or not.

Experts from the ISPI network discuss the risk of the conflict escalating further.

The death of Haniyeh pushes back the hopes for an end to the war

"Israel's assassination of Hamas Political Bureau leader Isma'il Haniyeh pushes away any chance of achieving a ceasefire in the short term, whether or not this was an actual possibility. The unprecedented attack on Iranian soil shows Netanyahu's readiness to take major escalatory steps in the regional confrontation with Israel's rivals. Iran has shown in the past that its goal is to avoid a direct conflict with Israel, but the sophisticated killing of Haniyeh is a blow to Iranian security services that will probably require a harsher response. The elimination of prominent Hamas leaders is a longstanding Israeli tactic that has had little effect on the movement's political and military capabilities. Haniyeh's death might even increase the internal political leverage of Hamas' military wing that planned and carried out the October attacks with little to no involvement from the exiled political leadership that Haniyeh represented"

Francesco Saverio Leopardi, Research Fellow, University of Padua

A night that plunged the region once again on the brink of a total war

"It took just one night to plunge the entire region once again on the brink of a total war: two targeted killings in two capitals that bring the long-feared prospect of a regional escalation even closer. Although unprecedented in its method, the killing of Fuad Shukr confirms what has been Israel's strategy for months: degrading Hezbollah's military and operational capabilities strike by strike. However, the hardest blow was dealt to Iran. Not only does the assassination of Haniyeh expose all the weaknesses of Iran's security apparatus, but it also tarnishes the country's image on the international stage. That such a prominent figure could be killed in Tehran just hours after the swearing-in of a new president is something that we had never seen before."

Mattia Serra, Junior Research Fellow, ISPI MENA Centre

The Majdal Shams tragedy did not change Hezbollah's strategy

"The Majdal Shams tragedy will bring no change in Hezbollah's military strategies, other than as a reaction to a possible serious escalation by Israel. Hezbollah has no plans to launch a full-blown war against its southern neighbour. It does not consider the conflict to be Lebanese-centred. The Lebanese population, including Hezbollah's most fervent supporters, does not expect more from Hezbollah than it already does, a fact which the latter's leadership is aware of. Hezbollah will only hit Israel harder if Israel attacks more harshly Lebanese territory, its state institutions and/or its civilian population."

Aurélie Daher, Associate Professor, Dauphine Université Paris

The conflict did not alter the relations between Hezbollah and Lebanon's government

"The Mikati government, specifically the Foreign Minister Abdullah Bou Habib, is friendly and not antagonistic to Hezbollah. Bou Habib expressed his wish for a de-escalation and a ceasefire agreement between Hezbollah and Israel, based on the implementation of the Security Council resolution 1701. The recent escalation has not caused a major shift in the coordination between the government and Hezbollah, but rather a continuation of their past relationship/dynamics."

Mohanad Hage Ali, Deputy Director for Research, Malcolm H. Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center

The Druse community's reaction to Majdal Shams

"Majdal Shams, the capital of the Golan Heights, occupied in 1967 and annexed by Israel in 1980, notably rejects the annexation and retains its Syrian identity. Therefore, the blow is painful for this town and for what it represents in terms of rejecting the Israeli occupation. The Druse are a small minority distributed between Syria, Lebanon, and Palestine/Israel. Despite Tel Aviv's attempts to distinguish the Druse from other Arabs (they, along with the Negev Bedouins, are the only ones among Israeli Arabs who serve in the Israeli army), most of them remain attached to their Arab identity. This is what prompted their spiritual and political leaders to reject the Israeli exploitation of this painful blow. This was clearly evident in their refusal to allow an Israeli minister to attend the victims' funerals. It was further highlighted by the protest reception of Benjamin Netanyahu's visit to the town a few days after the massacre. The Druse of Lebanon will suffice with Hezbollah's denial of confirmed responsibility for the attack, due to their national conviction first and their structural weakness as a minority among minorities in the region."

Salam Kawakibi, Director, CAREP Paris

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