How Countries Can Use Behavior Change to Further Reduce Emissions

The fight against climate change may be missing a critical strategy: incorporating strategic policies that encourage people to integrate climate-friendly activities, like eating a plant-based diet or lessening reliance on gas-fueled cars, into their daily lives. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), adopting comprehensive behavior changes could cut climate-harming greenhouse gas emissions by 40% to 70% by 2050 compared to current national policies. Making sustainable living easy and affordable is essential for driving these reductions and securing our planet's future.

New WRI research is the first to investigate the overlap between national climate commitments, known as nationally determined contributions (NDCs), and more sustainable consumer behavior. It examines how - and whether - 19 of the world's highest-emitting countries, plus the European Union, are using their NDCs to drive pro-climate behavior shifts.

Specifically, it focuses on nine high-impact behaviors, identified by Project Drawdown, a non-governmental organization that advances effective science-based climate solutions. The behaviors are aimed at significantly cutting harmful climate emissions in the energy, transport and food sectors by 2050 if widely adopted.

These behaviors, referred to as "Priority Practices," include reducing air travel and promoting more sustainable local transport, such as using electric or hybrid vehicles, relying on mass transportation, or encouraging more active mobility like walking or biking. Additional practices include reducing food loss and waste and eating more plant-based foods. Other behaviors include adopting residential roofing solar for home energy needs, using clean cookstoves and switching to more energy-efficient appliances.

The results reveal progress but significant opportunities for action. Here are three key findings:

1) Many Critical Consumer Behaviors Are Not Included in National Climate Plans

While some of the highest-emitting countries are using their national climate commitments to support sustainable living, there are critical gaps.

Of the nine behaviors we looked at in 19 high-emitting countries and the EU, most were not mentioned at all in their NDCs. However, we did find that a few were mentioned far more than others:

• Encouraging electric or hybrid vehicles (80% of countries).
• Promoting public transport use (75% of countries).
• Reducing household energy consumption through insulation or efficient appliances (60% of countries).

Countries like China, the United Kingdom and Japan are leading the way here. For instance, China's ambitious plan to promote electric vehicles includes substantial investments in charging infrastructure and incentives for consumers. The UK has set a target to end the sale of new gas and diesel cars by 2030, backed by significant investments in electric vehicle infrastructure.

This is a good start, but it's also a missed opportunity for many of the top-emitting countries. For example, Russia and Iran do not mention any of these important shifts. We also find that the EU, Brazil, Australia, Japan and Thailand are at the bottom of the list, with the key behavior shifts appearing only once or twice in their national climate commitments.

Behavioral change policies can be an extremely powerful tool to make transformational shifts toward lowering greenhouse gas emissions, yet most countries are failing to use them. For example, shifting away from cars toward walking or biking is critical for a sustainable future, but only five of the world's 20 highest emitters are using their NDCs to help catalyze this shift. This is a missed opportunity.

2) Impactful Sectors Like Air Travel and Food Are Often Overlooked

Our analysis reveals a mismatch between the practices included in NDCs and their potential impact on emissions reduction. Specifically, food-related behaviors and reducing air travel - despite their high emissions reduction potential - are among the least-addressed in NDCs.

The potential of food-related behaviors is particularly striking. A 2018 study in Science found that moving to a plant-based diet could reduce food-related emissions by up to 73%. However, among the 20 national climate commitments we evaluated, only the UK explicitly mentions promoting sustainable diets.

Policies to reduce air travel, meanwhile, are absent from all the NDCs we analyzed. This is a missed opportunity since aviation accounts for about 2.5% of global carbon dioxide emissions and is one of the fastest-growing sources of emissions. Policy remedies do exist: While not part of France's NDC, the country's 2023 ban on short-haul flights where a rail alternative under two and a half hours exists is an example that others might follow.

3) Climate Plans Should Rely on More Tools to Drive Behavior Change

To encourage climate-friendly behavior changes, behavioral strategies (which we refer to as tools) are needed to help put policies into action. The IPCC identified eight behavior change tools, which WRI streamlined into three to better evaluate how behavior change policies are being implemented in NDCs.

These three tools are:

• Enhanced information, which helps people make sustainable choices by providing sustainability information in intuitive and accessible ways. For example, energy labels on appliances can act as shortcuts, guiding people toward more energy-efficient appliances.
• Incentives and disincentives, which include financial and non-monetary incentives that can motivate consumers to pick sustainable products or actions making those choices more attractive, fun or attainable. Disincentives, like congestion pricing, discourage behaviors by adding extra barriers.
• Improving the decision-making context, which involves changing the choice environment so that sustainable choices are easier or more appealing. It can include both "choice architecture" (how choices are presented, such as making plant-based options more eye-catching on a menu) and "choice infrastructure" (changes to the physical environment, such as building more protected bike lanes).

Each of these tools can be applied both at the downstream (individual consumer) level and at the upstream (policy or business) level. For example, while personalized information might involve giving individuals feedback on their energy consumption through smart meters (downstream), it could also include policies requiring carbon footprint labels on products (upstream).

Our analysis shows that NDCs are currently leaning on only one of the tools to move behaviors within a given sector. This, too, represents a missed opportunity.

For example, in the transport and mobility sector almost all NDCs promote behavior change by improving the decision-making context, such as by investing in EV charging infrastructure. This is a strong start, but efforts would be enhanced by also offering incentives like subsidies on e-bikes and electric vehicles as many U.S. city, state and federal policies have done. Or by integrating enhanced information into policies. For example, Australia's NDCs provide details on their real-world emissions testing program that gives consumers clear cost insights on car emissions, making it easier for car buyers to choose a greener vehicle and save money in the long run.

In the energy sector, we find that almost all NDCs are leaning on enhanced information by providing personalized feedback on energy use. Again, this is a strong start, with evidence that such efforts can reduce household energy consumption. But there's an opportunity to leverage a wider range of behavior change tools for greater impact. For instance, providing incentives and disincentives can also be impactful. The UK's NDC discusses renewable heat incentive rewards for small-scale solar energy, while India's direct benefit transfer scheme offers subsidies for cleaner fuel.

Harnessing Behavior Change Opportunities

At last year's UN climate change summit (COP28), the first-ever Global Stocktake assessed the world's progress toward limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees C (2.7 degrees F), helping to provide guidance for the next round of NDCs due in 2025. As the date approaches and countries update their national climate commitments, taking behavior into consideration will not just make countries´ NDCs more ambitious, but lead to more significant emissions reductions. Specifically, countries should do the following:

• Include detailed and well-funded policies that focus on country-specific demand-side emissions reductions to support pro-climate behavior change at scale.
• Consider overlooked impactful shifts - specifically dietary shifts, reducing air travel and reducing consumer food waste. There are models for countries to follow. For example, South Korea's pay-as-you-throw system helps reduce food waste by charging residents based on the amount of waste they generate and dispose of.
• Consider changing behavior using a variety of tools, and multiple tools used in conjunction. For instance, the Netherlands' approach to promoting cycling uses all three: providing clear signage and cycling maps (enhanced information), offering tax benefits for cycling to work (incentives) and investing in extensive cycling infrastructure (improving decision-making context).

Some countries are starting to weave behavior change into their NDCs, but there's plenty of room to improve. By tapping into diverse behavior change strategies and homing in on high-impact practices, nations can leverage NDCs to catalyze behavior change, unlocking greater climate ambition and results.