ISPI - Istituto per gli Studi di Politica Internazionale

04/05/2024 | Press release | Distributed by Public on 04/05/2024 04:14

Türkiye Elections: Is This the End of the Erdoğan Era

The MED This Week newsletter provides informed insights on the most significant developments in the MENA region, bringing together unique opinions and reliable foresight on future scenarios. Today, we shed light on the results of the local elections held in Türkiye on March 31.

On March 31, over 61 million Turkish citizens casted their votes for the local elections. Ten months after the successful campaign that secured his position at both the presidential and parliamentary elections, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and his party, the Justice and Development Party (AKP), have suffered a tough defeat. For the first time since 2002, AKP's received 2% less votes than the Republican People's Party (CHP), the largest opposition party, which secured 37.77% of the votes nationwide. Discontent over the country's persistent economic downturn seems to have been the main reason for the voters' decision not to support Erdoğan, who has been held responsible for not yet resolving the crisis. Alongside economic concerns, hostility with the AKP has shaped the preference of Türkiye's Kurdish community. Even if the Kurdish Peoples' Equality and Democracy Party (DEM) has won in Eastern Kurdish-majority provinces, in the country's main cities, such as Istanbul and Ankara, Kurds opted to support the CHP, setting aside their ethnic sensitivity. Finally, although foreign policy usually does not play a pivotal role in Turkish local elections, the government's behaviour in the Gaza war, including the government's decision to maintain trade relations with Israel, may have prompted AKP supporters to turn their back on the President and favour other conservative parties.

Experts from the ISPI network discuss the 31 March local elections in Türkiye.

Electoral results are a (further) sign that the AKP needs to reform

"The local elections' results reflected significant outcomes, yet they were not entirely shocking, given that the AKP - as a party - has been in decline mode since around 2015. Here are a set of reasons contributed to this result, including the low voter turnout; economic pressure; the split in the AKP coalition, especially over the Israeli war on Palestinians; wrong election tactics between AKP and MHP; the change in CHP leadership. Following these elections, the AKP needs to conduct a comprehensive review of its performance and learn the right lessons. People have raised a yellow card to their party. Revolutionary measures to drastically re-create the AKP and reform its policies are desperately needed. Most importantly, strategic thinking for the post-Erdoğan era is necessary, as it is almost certain that the next presidential elections will witness the nomination of Ekrem İmamoğlu or the CHP head Özgür Özel. As Erdoğan himself said, "either the AKP sees its mistakes and gathers its strength, or we continue to melt like ice when it sees the sun". Having said this, it is fundamental to relativise and not exaggerate. This is a local election, not a presidential one, and Erdoğan has always been more popular than the party has."

Ali Bakir, Assistant professor, Qatar University; Senior Non-Resident Fellow, "Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative" and Middle East Programs, Atlantic Council

Erdoğan's defeat: challenges ahead?

"These elections mark Erdoğan's most significant electoral setback in his political career. While facing occasional electoral challenges over the years in power, this is the first time Erdoğan's AKP has lost its position as the largest political force in Türkiye. This resounding warning from the electorate will undoubtedly shape Türkiye's trajectory in the upcoming four-year period devoid of elections. Despite Erdoğan's assurance of respecting the election outcome in his concession speech, the extent to which he will refrain from impeding opposition mayors in major cities or removing newly elected mayors from the pro-Kurdish DEM Party, as witnessed after the 2019 elections, remains uncertain. Given the magnitude of this electoral outcome, even Erdoğan may not have definitive answers to these questions. What is apparent, however, is Erdoğan's focus on reviving the Turkish economy in the coming years and accruing credit for it before the 2028 presidential elections. Yet, achieving this goal will require implementing conventional austerity measures. Furthermore, with major cities lost to the opposition, the ruling elite's access to public resources will be further constrained. As a result, the next four years devoid of elections pose formidable challenges for Erdoğan."

Edgar Sar, Director, Istanbul Political Research Institute; Researcher, CEU Democracy Institute

Turkish opposition's triumph: between resilience and political shifts

"The results of these elections for the opposition are interesting in many ways. On the one hand, a few opposition parties have demonstrated strong resilience and organisational capacities in the face of authoritarian tactics put in place by the government. The social-democratic CHP has confirmed itself as Türkiye's main party for the first time in decades. The result also shows how the renewed leadership of the party resonates positively with the electorate. The pro-Kurdish DEM party has managed to regain municipalities in the Southeastern provinces from government-appointed administrators. On the other hand, parties with no clear political allegiance like the nationalist Good Party (İYİP) have been swept away, while the New Welfare Party (YRP) has emerged as a new opponent to the government from the right. Most importantly, the trust of the citizens in the electoral process to foster democratic political change has been proven yet another time."

Fazila Mat, Researcher, Osservatorio Balcani e Caucaso Transeuropa

Kurdish votes: pragmatism won over ethnicity

"Although pro-government circles put out feelers ahead of the vote to draw votes from the Kurds, pro-Kurdish party voters cast their votes either for their own party or the main opposition CHP. In big cities, such as Istanbul, Kurdish support for the opposition candidates paved the way for their success. This suggests that despite Erdoğan's years of effort to drive a wedge among the country's pro-democracy forces, majority of Turks and Kurds want the same thing: a democratic and prosperous Türkiye. Kurdish support for the main opposition party's candidates in big cities rather than the pro-Kurdish party candidates suggests identity politics played a less prominent role in recent elections. Concerns over economic problems seem to have shaped voter behaviour more than ethnic sensitivities."

Gönül Tol, Director of Turkish Program, Middle East Institute

Türkiye's economic crisis: the catalyst behind Erdoğan's party defeat

"Türkiye's persistant economic crisis is largely responsible for the unprecedented defeat of President Erdoğan's ruling AKP on March 31 local elections. Plagued by inflation, which has greatly eroded their purchasing power, many Turkish citizens looked at their wallet before heading to the polls. The result was a vote of protest against the government's economic mismanagement. For years, the Turkish President defined interest rates as "the mother of all evils", and insisted on maintaining them low, despite rampant inflation. However, the return to a more orthodox economic policy, which has been spearheaded by the Minister of Treasury and Finance Mehmet Şimşek since last summer, is far from bearing fruit. Indeed, although interest rates were boosted from 8.5% in June 2023 to 50% last month, inflation continues to rise: 68.5% in March. While Şimşek's medium-term economic programme is expected to reduce inflation in the foreseeable future, its implementation has exacerbated the short-term hardships faced by Turks. Against this backdrop, tackling inflation remains both an economic and political priority. With no election in sight for the next four years, it is likely that the government will continue to follow the economic course taken so far."

Valeria Talbot, Head, MENA Centre, ISPI

The Gaza war has increased votes toward Islamists

"Foreign policy issues did not play much of a role in Türkiye's local elections, except for Ankara's response to Gaza's invasion by Israel. Turkish leadership strongly condemned the Israeli actions in Gaza, by often calling it "a genocide", and recalled the Turkish ambassador from Tel Aviv, Turkish Islamist New Welfare Party (YRP) accused the government of maintaining trade ties with Israel, including allowing oil shipments through Turkish territories. The party successfully deployed this argument towards the ruling AKP supporters, some of whom are pious citizens with a special sensitivity to issues like Palestine. As a result, many voters switched to YRP to punish the government and to send a signal to the leadership that they do not approve the current course of policy regarding Israel, asking for more punitive steps against the Israeli government. But in the end, this is only a small issue compared to other problems that the government has to face, such as runaway inflation, the melting salaries of the pensioners, and the general fatigue over Erdoğan's performance over the years."

Ragip Soylu, Turkey Bureau Chief, Middle East Eye

The Gaza war has divided the conservative Islamist front

"In recent local elections in Türkiye, the rising cost of living dominated voters' concerns, paving the way for the opposition's unexpected success. Domestic issues mostly took precedence over foreign policy matters, but the war in Gaza deepened divisions among Islamist, conservative parties. The right-wing Islamist YRP called on Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and his AKP to adopt a more assertive position against Israel by, for instance, cutting off Türkiye's trade ties with the country. The YRP, a right-wing successor party to which Erdoğan was affiliated in the 1990s, made a strong showing and emerged as a notable right-wing Islamist alternative to the AKP, garnering over 3 million votes (7% nation-wide). YRP leader Fatih Erbakan's sharp criticism of the AKP's policies on Israel appears to have resonated with discontent former AKP voters, who see Ankara's ongoing ties with Israel as a betrayal of Türkiye's commitment to the Palestinian cause. "They continue to do billions of dollars of trade, of exports. Does it suit us to do this trade with Zionist killers?", he said at one election rally a week before polls. At an internal party meeting a few days after the elections, Erdoğan admonished his party for failing to sufficiently explain to the electorate their stance on Gaza. It's clear that Israel's brutal war in Gaza and Ankara's response will continue to contribute to splits in the conservative, Islamist political scene in Türkiye."

Berkay Mandıracı, Senior Analyst, International Crisis Group